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Kshsb
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我自己的判断是,单纯靠减半周期的历史规律去预测这轮牛市几月几号启动,参考价值已经在下降,因为这轮周期比特币的持有结构变了,ETF和机构持仓占比越来越高,价格行为更贴近传统金融资产的宏观驱动逻辑,而不是散户情绪驱动的抛物线走势。
所以与其等一个明确的契机,不如盯紧ETF资金流向和美联储的政策路径这两个先行指标,它们比任何单一的新闻事件都更能提前反映资金态度的转变。
Kshsb
The biggest difference between this bull market and the last one is not the price.
It's the buyers who have changed.
Previously, it was mainly retail investors passing BTC among themselves.
Now, more and more it's ETFs, publicly listed companies, sovereign wealth funds, and corporate treasuries continuously buying BTC.
When the holders of an asset start to change, its pricing logic often changes as well.
That's why I'm paying more and more attention to capital flows rather than daily price fluctuations.
$BTC
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