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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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特朗普近期与沙特的频繁的“勾肩搭背”,核心是构建以美国为主的新中东秩序,这对于美伊短期是利好,中长期让阿拉伯地区国家陷入更加混乱的局面! 1,此前美国承诺向沙特提供民用核技术,要求沙特加入《亚伯拉罕》协议,形成新的地区同盟关系,而这个同盟关系以美国为主导,同时缓和了以色列与沙特之间的矛盾 2,本周美伊军事冲突中,虽然沙特没有深度配合,但是对于伊拉克战场上,美沙出现了协同作战的情况,双方共同袭击了伊朗支持的伊拉克武装力量,这是一个敏感信号,虽然沙特并未直接袭击伊朗,但是在地区上与美国的战略协同关系愈发明显 3,此前特朗普尝试让沙特加入《亚伯拉罕》协议,但是沙特并未直接回应,主要是多方因素考虑,而其中最主要的因素就是对于巴勒斯坦建国,对于加沙问题,沙特在这个问题上与以色列矛盾较深 4,最新消息中,特朗普宣布哈马斯全面解除武装,以色列军队撤离加沙,巴勒斯坦新政府接管加沙地区,一来压制以色列,二来缓和以色列与沙特矛盾,三来促进沙特加入地区同盟,从而形成一个新的阿拉伯地区战略同盟关系 5,一旦沙特加入同盟,将会对伊朗等抵抗组织不利,同盟将会是限制反美联盟的发展。 6,但是,短期来看,美国试图通过扶持新盟友来抑制伊朗,对于目前美伊局势是好事,说明特朗普不愿因与伊朗直接冲突甚至All in,但是中长期来看,阿拉伯地区复杂的宗教、利益、军事与外交关系,沙特一旦倒向,意味着该地区的更加混乱。 7,接下来要看两条线索: a,哈马斯是否解除武装退出,以色列是否撤军,沙特是否考虑加入《亚伯拉罕》, b,美伊之间是否继续爆发军事冲突,海峡是否继续存在军事行动,双边何时回归谈判桌 8,目前国际能源短期反弹放缓,但是整体并未走出危险区间,还是要继续关注后续双线动态能否促进摩擦缓和。#美伊报复循环加速,油价月内累涨20%
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
How about a showdown between Trump and Khamenei? Sigh, Iran has started attacking US military bases again, but after reviewing the current information, the overall intensity is not as high as the first attack this week. Obviously, the US and Iran are currently staging a "show match," with both sides maintaining a certain level of restraint in their attacks and retaliations, and the intensity of the conflict gradually decreasing. If there has to be such a show, honestly, it would be more interesting if Trump and Khamenei arranged a place to fight in a ring, it would be more entertaining than what's happening now. Why do I say Iran's counterattack intensity has decreased? 1. From the first attack this week on multiple US bases in Jordan, Kuwait, etc., to now focusing attacks on the Ali Al-Salim base, the scope of strikes has narrowed. 2. Weapon usage has shifted from a large-scale barrage of ballistic missiles and drones at the beginning of the week to limited missile and drone precision strikes now. 3. From demonstrating retaliatory capability and restoring military deterrence at the start of the week to maintaining military pressure and controlling escalation now. 4. From creating regional geopolitical tension early in the week to an obvious war of attrition intent now. Based on current open-source information, Iran's counterattacks have clearly reduced the intensity of the conflict, narrowing the strike range and weapon deployment while increasing precision and targeting. From the first round of casualties to now, there have been no reports of casualties (it is very likely this time the attacks targeted only military equipment). Clearly, Iran's counterattacks are tougher in rhetoric but softer in action, much like the US strikes—limited strikes to prevent local geopolitical conflicts from escalating. These signs sufficiently indicate that both the US and Iran are exercising restraint, and the military strikes seem more like fulfilling each other's political needs. Going forward, if the US continues to retaliate but on a smaller scale and with lower intensity, it indicates that both sides are not far from returning to the negotiating table, which aligns well with the trend of promoting talks through fighting. Honestly, this kind of show match to promote talks is really less interesting than if Trump and Khamenei arranged a cage fight somewhere. The market is exhausted, the audience is tired, it even makes me want to curse! #美军空袭伊朗,油价冲高回落

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