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Lio hunter
Lio hunter
Gold has been really strong this week, surging straight to 4339 USD, up 7.27% in one week. If someone had told me at the beginning of the month that gold could rise 7% in a week, I probably wouldn't have believed it. But it really happened. The non-farm payrolls data is the direct cause: -23,000, while the expectation was an increase of 80,000, a difference of 100,000. Once the data came out, the probability of a rate hike dropped sharply from nearly 60% to about 44%. The dollar weakened, and gold took off. But this surge is too strong to be explained by non-farm data alone; there are three underlying layers supporting it. The first layer is easing expectations. When employment weakens, the market believes the Fed won't dare to raise rates anymore. With a low probability of rate hikes, the dollar weakens, and gold naturally strengthens. The second layer is safe-haven demand. Trump and Iran are still exchanging tough rhetoric, the Strait of Hormuz remains a concern, and central banks haven't stopped increasing gold reserves. These demands won't disappear just because of one month's non-farm data. The third layer is capital following through. CFTC data shows net long positions in gold are increasing—not retail investors buying, but significant money moving. Then there's an interesting phenomenon: gold is rising, SPCX is rising, but BTC hasn't moved much. The same macro narrative, but three assets behave completely differently. Citibank set a target price of 220 for SPCX, which has risen 23% in two days. BTC is still hovering around 65,000. ETF money is flowing in, but Coinbase premiums remain negative, with US institutions and Asia offsetting each other. So is this gold price move a rebound or the start of a new trend? I lean toward the latter. Non-farm data was the ignition, but the underlying logic is capital reallocating. After breaking 4300, the technical outlook also opened up. #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound

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