Post

$AAOI option patterns currently represent a typical earnings trade with bets on both sides. There is a large amount of short-term call speculation, call rolling, upward demand, and extreme downside protection all present simultaneously. Earnings expected volatility is 14.66%, calculated at 128.56, implying a range of approximately 109.90—147.22. Holding $AAOI through earnings today should be able to withstand at least about a 15% overnight gap. There is positive delta demand on the options side, but the spot price is not holding, with selling pressure on the stock itself stronger than the hedging buy-side from option flows. In summary, options are hedging and long volatility, without a very clear directional bias.