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1. Core Event Interpretation The strait is not completely blocked; the old route is closed and a temporary new route is opened (valid for 2-4 months), leading to a phased easing of the Middle East conflict; meanwhile, the US signals willingness to resume the agreement, reducing geopolitical panic. 2. Transmission Chain (Macro → Crypto Price) 1. Oil price expectations fall → Inflation pressure decreases Risk of strait navigation eases, crude oil risk premium drops, market expects no inflation rebound, Fed rate cut expectations rise, and the dollar weakens. Rate cut expectations are the biggest macro positive for cryptocurrencies; liquidity easing expectations will boost risk appetite for Bitcoin and major altcoins, making short-term sentiment generally bullish. 2. Shift in Safe-Haven Sentiment - During extreme tension: market panic leads to selling risk assets like BTC, holding only USD and gold; - Conflict easing: safe-haven funds flow back into risk assets, benefiting Bitcoin and altcoin rebounds. ⚠️ Key point: The new route is only a temporary solution (2-4 months), the conflict is not fully resolved, so this is a short-term positive, not a long-term reversal. If negotiations break down later, the market will quickly reverse and decline. 3. Differences Among Specific Coins 1. Bitcoin (BTC): Most affected by liquidity expectations; news can trigger short-term rallies, but sustainability depends on subsequent oil prices and Fed speeches; 2. Major altcoins (ETH, SOL, etc.): Usually have larger gains than BTC when risk appetite recovers; 3. Middle East and payment concept coins (XRP, stablecoins): Under Iran sanctions, the market may hype cross-border settlement and trade payment narratives, offering extra short-term speculative opportunities. 4. Trading Risk Warnings 1. This is an event-driven short-term market; positive news often leads to "buy the rumor, sell the fact"; prices may fall after#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck