帖子

#From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes, Fed Divisions Fully Exposed I am Brother Ci. The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have been completely laid bare. The rate hike camp and the rate cut camp have both revealed their cards simultaneously, with completely opposite directions. Such a scene is extremely rare in recent years.The rate hike camp, represented by Logan, Harker, and Kashkari, believes that inflation has been above 2% for over five years, current policies are not restrictive enough, and interest rates should be slightly higher. The rate cut camp currently has only Waller publicly advocating, warning that the labor market may deteriorate rapidly and supporting a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting. Chair Wash has not expressed a directional stance, stating that the 2% target remains unchanged, decisive action will be taken if necessary, rejecting forward guidance, and that the September path will be determined by the two CPI reports before the meeting.Market pricing still clearly favors rate hikes, with no pricing for rate cut proposals. In other words, the market is completely on Logan's side, ignoring Waller's warnings. The Fed's internal directional divisions, combined with the market's one-sided bet on rate hikes, mean that any CPI data below expectations could trigger a sharp directional correction. Under the rate hike logic, BTC faces short-term pressure, but the narrative of fiat currency credit erosion strengthens; under the rate cut logic, BTC directly benefits from liquidity release.For short positions on SanDisk, the high interest rate environment suppresses tech stock valuations, with the storage sector as a high Beta category taking the brunt. As long as rate hike expectations do not cool down, the valuation ceiling for tech stocks cannot rise, and the rebound space for storage stocks is limited. Continue holding the 1324.87 short position, move the stop loss up to 1320, with a target of 1200 to 1220. Around 1288 is a short-term resistance level; the macro background for the short position has not changed, waiting for the.