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The contradiction is what matters: Bull case: strong chip exports, rising spot prices, and resilient demand suggest the semiconductor cycle still has momentum. Bear case: analysts cutting Samsung/Hynix targets and warning of a peak suggests the market may already be pricing in a lot of good news. What matters next: contract prices and inventory levels. If contract pricing continues rising while inventories remain controlled, the bullish thesis gets stronger. If prices flatten and inventories build, the “peak” argument gains credibility. So the sensible approach is exactly what you said: don’t blindly choose a side while the narrative is at maximum intensity. Let the next data confirm whether this is a sustainable cycle or the late stage of a price surge.