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🛢️ The Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen, and the war premium has been completely drained · Bassent: An agreement with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as soon as tomorrow · Rubio: Negotiations have made progress; Iran's stance has softened, considering allowing Europe to clear mines in the strait · WTI down 5% intraday, falling back to $74.66; European stocks Stoxx600 hit a new high for July When oil crashes, the logic of "war = inflation = rate hikes" loosens. Half a month ago, the market feared oil prices pushing inflation higher, forcing the Fed not to cut rates; now this downward catalyst is being dismantled one by one, and risk assets are collectively breathing a sigh of relief—FANG +6%, Intel +10%. The only one still pretending to sleep is crypto. $BTC stubbornly clings to 64K, not following risk assets up, but falling when they fall. This "falling with the market but not rising with it" divergence is the signal to watch now—the narrative favors the bulls, but the price hasn't caught on. Don't rush to translate macro tailwinds into buy reasons. Wait for $BTC to find its own direction before deciding whether to follow. Let's watch and see 🧊