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liquidity_Jam
#财报观察员:空头回补成焦点,SpaceX后续怎么看?
$SPCX still has several rounds of unlocking ahead, and selling pressure will indeed come wave after wave.
📅 Unlocking timeline
After the first batch of 911.5 million shares unlocks on August 6, the following are expected:
· August 20: about 319 million shares
· September: approximately 700 million shares
· October: close to 700 million shares
The entire unlocking process uses a nine-stage batch mechanism and will continue until 2027. Elon Musk and some specific shareholders have an extended lock-up period that ends next June.
Shorts are not out yet
Currently, more than 250 million SPCX shares are still shorted, and short positions remain. If insiders start mass selling after unlocking, shorts will have more ammunition; if selling pressure is not as big as expected, shorts may continue to be forced out. The battle between both sides is not over.
My view
The market withstood the August 6 unlocking wave; the stock price didn’t collapse but actually rose. However, that doesn’t mean the following rounds will hold up—each batch of unlocking is a new supply shock. The 700 million shares in September and 700 million shares in October combined exceed the first batch of 911.5 million shares. Chips are continuously being released, which is the real test.
SPCX’s current level can be seen as cheap or expensive depending on your calculation cycle. There are still several rounds of unlocking ahead, so I won’t heavily bet at this position. I’ll watch first and wait for the chip structure to stabilize. No rush to jump in, no rush to run.$SNDK
Declinarea responsabilității: conținutul OKX Orbit este furnizat doar în scopuri informative. Aflați mai multe
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