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Coldcard's recent spike in on-chain activity likely reflects user migration, not just attacker movement.
The bigger question isn't how much BTC is moving—it's who controls it.
Current evidence suggests this was a bounded seed-generation vulnerability, where affected firmware produced wallet secrets that could be guessed for a limited set of devices.
Meanwhile, a significant portion of the suspected stolen BTC reportedly remains in attacker-controlled addresses, while smaller amounts have begun moving through peel chains and other services.
That distinction matters:
🔹 Defensive wallet migration can temporarily inflate on-chain activity without adding meaningful selling pressure.
🔹 The primary near-term market risk comes from attacker-controlled inventory. If those holdings begin moving to exchanges, they could create localized sell pressure.
For now, separating defensive transfers from potential liquidation flows is key when interpreting the on-chain data.
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