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taishiro
Watch whether CapEx guidance stabilizes or keeps marching higher, whether Meta can clearly quantify incremental revenue and margin from AI beyond vague claims of better engagement, and how the Class C issuance is actually used and at what dilution cost.
This is not anti-AI. It is pro-capital discipline. The companies that win the next decade will be the ones that treat compute as a scarce, expensive input with measurable payback periods, not an unlimited option funded by hope and share issuance
taishiro
For those of us who analyze capital allocation across asset classes, the lesson is consistent.
Narrative plus growth can carry valuation for a long time, but negative free cash flow combined with escalating fixed commitments eventually forces a re-rating until the ROI becomes visible and durable.
The next few quarters will be telling.
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