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#FOMCRateWatch The Fed Decides Wednesday. Here's What Actually Moves Markets This Week. The FOMC rate decision at 2 PM ET on Wednesday is almost certainly a hold. Markets know it. The real action is everything orbiting around it. Oil sold off sharply after US-Iran ceasefire hopes gained momentum, pulling one of the stickier inflation inputs lower in a hurry. That helps the Fed stay patient. Add last week's jobless claims at 187K, beating expectations by a comfortable margin, and the labor market is holding firm without giving Powell any reason to rush. The macro setup, for now, is "hold and watch." But the bigger signal this week might come from earnings, not the Fed. Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon all report Wednesday and Thursday, and the number markets actually care about is capex guidance. If the hyperscalers signal more AI infrastructure spend, that's an inflationary input the Fed has to price in heading into H2. A hawkish capex print Wednesday night could shift rate expectations more than Powell's press conference. Crypto is watching from 30 on the Fear & Greed Index: off its worst levels but still firmly in fear. BTC reclaimed $65K, which is something. The quieter event to track is FTX's fifth creditor repayment round, $900M starting July 31. That's real capital potentially re-entering the market over the coming weeks. The Fed holds, oil retreats, big tech drops capex guidance, and FTX money starts moving. Hard to think of a more data-dense 48 hours. What's your read on which of these actually moves crypto?