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Lio hunter
Lio hunter
There really isn't much market action over the weekend; Bitcoin and Ethereum are both moving sideways, so I checked out the US stock market and was shocked by SPCX's performance. This morning it surged straight to 141, rising over 30% in just a few days from around 105 before the lock-up expiration. The market had been shouting that the lock-up would be a major negative, with over 900 million shares flooding the market and causing a drop. But what happened? Not only did it not fall, it actually became fuel for an upward surge. Citi also joined the hype, raising the target price to 220 and upgrading the rating to buy. Previously, short positions totaled $24.6 billion; with the stock price rising instead of falling, shorts were forced to cover, and this covering pushed the price even higher, causing a stampede. The strong rally is partly because the lock-up negative has been fully priced in, and the macro environment is also helping. After weaker non-farm payroll data, the probability of rate hikes has decreased, and US Treasury yields have fallen. High-valuation growth stocks like SPCX fear rising rates the most; now that rate expectations have eased, valuation pressure is relieved, and the stock price naturally has room to climb. Gold $XAU has also been strong this week, rising 7% in a week to surpass $4340. Looking at the candlesticks of gold and SPCX together, their rhythms are almost synchronized—both started moving before the non-farm data and accelerated after the data release. These two seemingly unrelated assets are actually trading the same thing: an improving interest rate environment. With the same macro tailwind, SPCX surged to 141, while SanDisk is still hovering around 1200. Despite earnings beating expectations, the stock fell 7%, and the non-farm data tailwind couldn't save it; investors just don't want to buy at this level, no choice. This reminds me of when I was holding ARB before—you think the logic is sound, but the market doesn't recognize it, so it just doesn't rise. #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound

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