Postingan

AMD's earnings report beat expectations, but I didn't chase it. Many people waited for AMD's earnings last night, just waiting for one sentence: As long as it beats expectations, the stock price will keep flying. But after the earnings came out, I actually put away the idea of buying. Not because AMD's earnings were bad. On the contrary, this report was actually quite impressive. Q2 revenue was $11.54 billion, up 50% year-over-year; adjusted EPS was $1.66, also higher than market expectations. Data center revenue was $6.7 billion, doubling year-over-year, and Q3 revenue guidance was $13 billion, also exceeding Wall Street expectations. If you only look at the earnings report. This should be a standard "positive news." But here’s the problem. Why did the stock price fall 7% after hours despite such good earnings? This is what I really care about. Many people who trade like to study the company. I prefer to study the market. Because the company tells you how much money it made. The market tells you: Whether that money is worth the current price. AMD has already risen too much in the past few months. AI, MI450, Helios, data centers, OpenAI, Meta... The market has almost already priced in these stories in advance. So the real question yesterday was not whether AMD could beat expectations. But: How much more can it beat expectations. Now the market no longer demands AMD to deliver an excellent report. It demands it to be crazier every quarter than the last. 50% revenue growth. Not enough. EPS beating expectations. Not enough. Data center doubling. Still not enough. At times like this, stocks are trading not on performance. But on expectations. To be clear. Many people bought AMD yesterday, not because they believe in Lisa Su. But because they believe: There will definitely be someone willing to buy at a higher price. That’s why I didn’t chase. I have no doubt AMD can continue to grow in the next few years. What I doubt is: How many surprises at this level have not already been priced in? If a company delivers an almost flawlessS