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#S&P closes at a new high again, expectations for 8000 points heat up I am Brother Ci. The S&P 500 closed at a new high again, rising 3.57% this week. The market has already started discussing 8000 points. While the US stock market is hitting new highs, BTC is still hovering around 65000, showing a disconnect between the two. The reason for the S&P's new high is clear. Corporate earnings reports are generally strong; Palantir's revenue increased 93%, rising nearly 30% after hours, Microsoft's cloud business exceeded expectations, Amazon's market value surpassed 3 trillion, and the logic of earnings realization continues to be validated. The non-farm payroll data turned negative, causing the probability of a September rate hike to fall from over 50% to 44%, with interest rate expectations moving toward a dovish stance, which supports risk assets. Progress in the Hormuz negotiations is also pushing oil prices down, marginally easing inflation concerns. These three forces together have driven the S&P to a weekly-level breakout. The reason BTC did not follow the rally is also clear. The liquidity structure of the crypto market differs from that of the US stock market. Although ETF funds are flowing in, their volume is insufficient to support BTC breaking through the 65000 resistance zone directly. BTC itself is waiting for a clearer catalyst; above 65000 is a dense area of short liquidations, and without enough buying power, it is difficult to break through in one go. The US stock market is rising on earnings and rate cut expectations, while BTC needs a weaker dollar or further warming of rate cut expectations to rise. Although the driving factors of the two markets overlap, their transmission timing is not synchronized. What to expect next? The non-farm data has already lowered rate hike expectations, geopolitical news is moving in a positive direction, and the probability of BTC breaking out near 65000 is increasing. #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound