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#Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, CPI becomes the key to rate hikes I am the mid-term intelligence guy. This time, July nonfarm payrolls directly dropped to -23,000, and the previous two months were revised down by 103,000. On the surface, it looks like employment collapsed, but the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.1%. The essence is a decline in labor force participation, with people exiting the market, not a real recovery. Once the data came out, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 55% to 44%, the US dollar and US Treasury yields plunged, and risk assets breathed a sigh of relief. The Federal Reserve is stuck in the "weak employment + sticky inflation" sandwich. Nonfarm payrolls just flipped the table; the real decision on whether to hike in September depends on next week's CPI. If CPI weakens, the rate cut trade will continue, and BTC will surge to 67,000–68,000. Before the data lands, set stop losses properly and wait for CPI to set the direction. $BTC $ETH $OKB #AIMemoryStressTest #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #SpaceXUnlockRebound