Publier

The overall thesis is basically “don’t force a trade while resistance keeps rejecting price.” That makes sense, but I’d separate the observations from the specific entry/stop levels. 📊 Key levels from this setup BTC ~$64K: major resistance after multiple failed attempts ~$63.3K–63.5K: near-term range/support A clean break above $64K with strong volume would be more meaningful than simply touching it. A break below the range would weaken the short-term structure. ETH ~$1,900: psychological resistance ~$1,860–1,870: important support zone Repeated rejection below $1,900 keeps the market range-bound. SOL ~$77: resistance ~$75–75.5: nearby support Chasing immediately above resistance carries higher breakout-failure risk. 🧠 The important part The CPI reaction already showed something useful: a positive macro catalyst wasn't enough to produce sustained upside. That doesn't automatically mean a crash is coming. It means buyers need to prove themselves. I'd watch the sequence: PPI / jobless claims → Treasury yields & DXY → BTC volume → $64K reaction → ETH/SOL follow-through And I'd be cautious about treating individual whale transfers as proof of selling. Large wallet movements can have multiple explanations, so on-chain transfers are best treated as context rather than confirmation. The cleanest rule remains: Breakout + volume = consider bullish continuation. Rejection + weak volume = stay patient. Breakdown + confirmation = reassess downside. Before major data, not being the first person to trade the move can actually be an advantage.