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SpaceX returns to the $135 IPO price, shorts got hit pretty hard this time
Last week, the first batch of nearly 100 billion market cap restricted shares of SpaceX were unlocked. I was wondering if it would crash the market, but instead, the market gave a slap in the face—the stock rose 6% on the unlock day and continued to surge nearly 16% the next day, accumulating a 23% increase over two trading days. Shorts once had unrealized gains exceeding $9 billion, but after Wednesday's earnings report, the stock plunged 14%, which had already released the negative sentiment in advance. The actual selling on the unlock day was not as fierce as imagined; shorts panicked and started covering, which instead pushed the price up.
Now the question is: is this rebound a re-pricing after clearing the negative factors, or a short-term rally driven by sentiment? Currently, shorts still account for about 16%, previously exceeding 36%, indicating that positions have not been completely cleared.
That said, the only AI catalyst for SpaceX now is Grok 4.6, which is scheduled to launch this week. Musk said they will use SpaceX's full data to train it. This, combined with the previously mentioned $18.3 billion AI-related capital expenditure in the earnings report, shows a heavy cash burn, but if Grok really launches, the market's valuation of SpaceX might no longer be just a rocket company.
This position is neither high nor low; after such a big rise, chasing it carries considerable risk. I'll wait for a pullback before making any moves.
#财报观察员:空头回补成焦点,SpaceX后续怎么看? #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn
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