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Valuation doubled in half a year, why is Polymarket worth $20 billion? Do you have this feeling— Last year you spent 50 yuan on Polymarket betting on election results just for fun. This year, they’re valued at $20 billion, chasing you for a billion dollars. You’re playing entertainment; they’re printing money. Bloomberg just broke the news: Polymarket is negotiating a new round of financing, planning to raise about $1 billion, targeting a valuation over $20 billion. What does that mean? In October last year, valuation was $9 billion. In April this year, $15 billion. Now, over $20 billion. In less than a year, it more than doubled. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of NYSE, invested $600 million in March; hedge fund D.E. Shaw and venture capital G Squared also followed in the April round. The smartest people on Wall Street are voting with real money. But the question is—why? What supports Polymarket’s $20 billion valuation? Three numbers: First, revenue. By the end of June, Polymarket’s annualized revenue was already “well above $1 billion.” By early August, this number exceeded $1.2 billion. Second, trading volume. The US platform’s daily trading volume surged from about $50 million in mid-May to over $200 million within a month. Now, US daily volume exceeds $100 million, and the international platform exceeds $150 million. Third, traffic. In the past month, Polymarket’s website visits reached 43.1 million, surpassing the combined total of FanDuel, DraftKings, and Kalshi. Monthly active users of 43.1 million—that’s already the scale of a mainstream financial app. But behind the frenzy, there are three things you need to see clearly. First: Burning cash for growth, not yet profitable. Annualized revenue of $1.2 billion sounds like a lot. But a $20 billion valuation is 16 times revenue. What does that mean? This valuation is packed with expectations of "getting bigger in the future." Once growth slows, the valuation must be recalculated. Second: Competitors are fiercer. Polymarket’s biggest rival Kalshi was valued at $22 billion in May. Last month, its trading volume was three times that of Polymarket. Kalshi is considering another funding round in Q3, targeting a $40 billion valuation. Is Polymarket the leader? Kalshi is the one running faster. Moreover, Robinhood, Coinbase, and DraftKings have all entered. Robinhood has already settled over 16 billion event contracts this year. With giants entering, the cake hasn’t grown yet, but those cutting the cake are already lining up at the door. Third: The regulatory sword is always hanging. CFTC is conducting a "continuous and extensive investigation" into Polymarket, involving misleading marketing, fake trades, and forged profits. Polymarket says it has started internal audits. But as long as the regulatory sword hasn’t fallen, the valuation carries a discount every day. To be honest— Polymarket surged from $9 billion to $20 billion in half a year. This is a speed only seen at the peak of internet companies. But at the same time, this is also the most typical sign of a bubble. Revenue tripling is true, traffic explosion is true, Wall Street rushing to invest is true. But you have to think clearly: Are you investing in a sector, or taking over a valuation? The prediction market sector will indeed explode by 2026—just in the first few months, Kalshi and Polymarket’s combined trading volume has reached about $60 billion, surpassing last year’s total. But in this sector, who will survive in the end, no one knows now. One last question for you— When you play Polymarket, is it to make money, have fun, or validate your judgment? If it’s just for fun, whether it’s $20 billion or $2 billion, it doesn’t matter to you. But if you want to make money in this sector— Don’t focus on valuation, focus on trading volume. Don’t follow emotions, follow liquidity. Wall Street rushing to invest doesn’t mean you should rush to buy. The platform prints money; the ones paying the bill are always retail investors. $POL $BTC $ETH #Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资，估值超200亿美元