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enkizh.eth
Show original SNDKUSDTperpetual10xBuyOpen position
$SNDK 基本面没有崩,但预期已经转变
Q4收入89.65亿美元、非GAAP EPS 39.25美元、非GAAP毛利率84.6%,经营业绩确实强劲;数据中心收入环比增长103%。(Sandisk官方财报)
Q1收入指引中值105.5亿美元,比市场约108.2亿美元预期低约2.5%;毛利率中值84%,较Q4的84.6%略降。这使市场从“利润继续加速”转向“毛利率是否已接近峰值”。(Q4官方演示材料)
GAAP EPS 43.97美元包含约8.04亿美元权益证券收益,非GAAP EPS 39.25美元更接近持续经营表现;但剔除该收益后,经营利润仍然非常强,不能把这次财报归类为“虚假盈利”。
NBM合同提高了FY2027–2028出货可见度,但价格包含固定和浮动部分。市场真正需要看到的是:这些协议能否在NAND涨价放缓后仍维持接近80%的毛利率。
华尔街目前的争论也集中在NAND平均售价增速放缓和利润率持续性,而不是AI数据中心需求突然消失。
$SNDK has shown the first effective support today, but it cannot yet be defined as a bottom.
A quick pullback near $1,164 and a rebound above the intraday VWAP indicate that the previously identified support zone of $1,180–$1,220 is valid; however, only recovering $1,300–$1,350 will mark the start of gap repair after the earnings report.
As of 21:46 Beijing time on August 6:
Latest trade around $1,238
Today's open at $1,172, low at $1,164, then a rebound of about 6.4%
Still down about 8.2% compared to yesterday's close at $1,349.7
WDC fell about 15% in the same period, MU about 3%, QQQ only about 0.5%, indicating this is a sector-wide risk-off in storage, not a single $SNDK crash.
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