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Oil prices plunged 12% in two days, Dow breaks through 54,000 points — Bitcoin's "dual identity" is finally understood by the market Did you see the news about the oil price crash yesterday? Brent crude oil fell nearly 12% over two days, dropping below the $80 mark, hitting $78.43/barrel during early Asian trading on Wednesday. At the same time, the Dow surged over 1,000 points intraday, breaking through 54,000 points for the first time, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hitting record highs. What about Bitcoin? It rebounded from a low of $62,200, reaching above $65,000 at its peak, firmly holding around the $64,000 level. Oil prices down, stock market up, Bitcoin following the rally — how long has it been since you've seen this logic? What happened? The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint carrying one-fifth of the world's oil shipments, has been blocked for over five months since the US and Israel's surprise attack on Iran in February 2026. Now, a turning point has arrived. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen publicly stated on August 4: "We are negotiating with Iran and are very likely to reach an agreement today or tomorrow to reopen the strait." The outline of the agreement is clear: a 60-day temporary arrangement, clearing mines within 30 days, with no transit fees during this period. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri confirmed the Iran-Arabian agreement is "close to finalization," and the strait will establish a "new transit model different from the past 60 years." Former President Trump also said: "We will know the result within 48 hours." The biggest geopolitical landmine globally is being defused. The market's reaction says it all. The transmission chain is crystal clear: Expectation of strait reopening → oil price plunge → easing inflation concerns → cooling rate hike expectations → collective risk asset rally The Dow rose nearly 1,000 points in two days, and the S&P 500 closed above 7,700 for the first time. Gold rose. Bitcoin also rose. Here is a point many haven't understood — In the past six months, Bitcoin has been traded as a "safe-haven asset." Middle East conflicts pushed Bitcoin up; high inflation pushed Bitcoin up. But this time, the logic is completely reversed: Geopolitical easing + oil price drop + inflation cooling = risk appetite returns = Bitcoin rises along with US stocks Bitcoin rebounded from 62,200 to 65,000, a gain of nearly 2,800 points. It is not a safe haven; it is following the rally. This is Bitcoin's most attractive trait — It is both "digital gold" and a "risk asset." When geopolitical conflicts escalate, it acts as gold — capital flows into safe havens. When geopolitical tensions ease and risk appetite recovers, it acts like tech stocks — capital flows in seeking returns. Others have only one identity; Bitcoin has two. When others fall, it may rise; when others rise, it may also rise. This is the power of the dual narrative. But don't celebrate too early. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri denied direct talks with the US, saying the agreement "is unrelated to immediate reopening of the strait," and that reopening depends on "whether the US corrects its violations." There are still divisions within the Revolutionary Guard, and risks of attacks on cargo ships remain. No formal agreement has been signed yet. If negotiations fail, oil prices could rebound, and risk assets might give back all gains. Finally, three practical points — First: The biggest geopolitical cloud suppressing global risk assets over the past six months is dissipating. Bitcoin switching from a "safe-haven narrative" back to a "risk asset narrative" actually opens up greater upside potential. Second: $64,000 is an important support level. If it holds and breaks through $65,000, the upside target is $65,800–$66,200. But if geopolitical tensions fluctuate, $62,000 is the next key defense line. Third: This rebound is essentially a technical recovery driven by geopolitical easing, not a full bull market restart. Don't call "bull return" just because of two days' gains, nor cut losses due to one negative factor. News-driven markets are about who moves fastest, not who predicts best. $BTC $BZ $CL #伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地