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老谭 Crypto
老谭 Crypto
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为什么这两天美国即使想打也不能打伊朗? 伊朗态度比较强硬,美国也得忍,硬压下油价 过两天缓和了还给接着干? 【 现在炒美股 / BTC,给看清美国节奏 】 纽约联储替美国财政部卖出欧元、买入日元 ( 又是欧公子买单全场 ) 更惹眼的是,财政部长贝森特在内阁会议上的便签被拍到,上面写着: Buy Japanese Yen (JPY) $5–10 bil. 美国很少直接干预汇市,这次为什么破例? 先看日本的软肋 日本资源能源厅数据显示,2024 年度日本约 95.1% 的原油来自中东 霍尔木兹海峡一旦出问题,油价和运输成本都会上涨,日本的输入性通胀随之加重,日元继续承压 日元跌得太快,日本就得动用外汇储备救汇率 市场真正担心的是:日本会不会因此卖出更多美元资产,尤其是美债。卖得又快又多,美国长期利率也会跟着难受 这就解释了一个很反常的细节 美国这次没有卖美元买日元,而是卖欧元 一边帮日元止血,一边尽量不碰“强美元”预期 贝森特后来也确认,美日采取了协调行动,公开理由是防止日元的无序下跌向其他亚洲货币扩散 再看伊朗 贝森特刚刚表示,美伊可能很快就恢复霍尔木兹海峡通航达成安排 霍尔木兹海峡受阻→ 油价上涨→ 日本通胀恶化→ 日元继续下跌→ 日本抛售美元资产→ 美债和美元体系承压 所以美国现在急着谈的,首先是让海峡恢复通航 核问题反倒可以往后放一放 美国出手救日元,未必是因为日本重要到压过中东,而是日元一旦失控,火很快就会烧到美债
老谭 Crypto
老谭 Crypto
Remember the BTC plunge when the yen first announced an interest rate hike? This time, the US couldn't sit still, and Japan and the US jointly intervened in the yen exchange rate. The financial background behind this is actually quite interesting. The yen-to-dollar exchange rate once fell to a historic low of 163. The Japanese government spent over 11 trillion yen in a single month to support the market. According to past patterns, Japan's most direct method to forcibly strengthen the yen is to sell its US Treasury holdings to exchange for dollars, then buy yen in the foreign exchange market. But this move directly stepped on the US's tail. Japan is the largest overseas creditor of the US. If Japan starts large-scale selling of US Treasuries to support the yen, it would directly push up US Treasury yields. For the US Treasury, which carries nearly $40 trillion in massive debt, a sharp increase in bond issuance and borrowing costs is absolutely unacceptable. This time, the US unprecedentedly intervened jointly, essentially defusing Japan's intervention. To prevent Japan from touching the US Treasury holdings, the US simply pulled its allies to intervene together, even selling euros and other foreign exchange assets to buy yen. This both lifted the yen in the market, pushing the exchange rate back near 158, and maintained the stability of the US Treasury market. The next key variable the market needs to watch is the 10-year Japanese government bond yield. If the JGB yield rises too quickly to 3%, it means Japan's long-term interest rates are being pulled too high, and the market and debt pressure will directly become unsustainable.

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