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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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今晚贝森特在接受CNBC采访的时候释放了两个关键信号,第一是对霍尔木兹海峡开通的乐观信号,第二则是对日本支持的信号 原话是“我们将采取一切必要措施支持日本,但这种支持必须以有利于美国经济和美国纳税人的方式进行” 这句话的其实有两层意思: 1,通过预期管理压制日元空头,帮助日本维稳汇率, 2,释放美日在经济与汇率上深度绑定关系,为后续继续帮助日本干预汇率做准备 不过以我的观点来看,贝森特在当前越是展现对日元的支持,越是意味着日本目前的风险比较大,美日在经济上深度捆绑,美国不想被日本拖下水,所以只能尝试各种方法来帮助日本渡过难关 毕竟这么有韧性且具备充足血量的“血包”不好找,全球都找不到几个,尤其是在欧洲整体衰败之后,日韩的重要性更上一层楼!#美日确认联合购汇
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
The US and Japan jointly intervened in the yen exchange rate, nominally to prevent the risk of the Japanese bond market from spilling over to US bonds. The core principle behind this is that the US needs to avoid being reverse-bled by Japan!
The joint intervention between the US and Japan in the yen exchange rate is nominally aimed at preventing risks from spreading to US bonds in Japan, but the core principle behind this is that the US needs to avoid being drained by Japan in reverse! Unexpectedly, the yen risk that had been chased for a long time was ignored by everyone. Last week, a joint intervention by the US and Japan made this topic a market hotspot. From the yen stabilizing at 160, then increasing the risk of reaching 162, and eventually pushing it to the sensitive 165 zone, people seemed indifferent to yen risk. But the facts proved that the yen risk has always existed, and for the US, this risk is chain-related. Because the US and Japan are deeply tied to the alliance and economy, Japan cannot collapse. Especially at this sensitive stage, the development of yen risk expansion! 1. Since last year, the yen has continued to weaken, especially after the US-Iran policy in March, which increased inflationary pressures. Japan continues to face imported inflation pressures and expectations of a weaker yen, increasing the momentum to short the yen. 2. The Japanese government intervenes by raising interest rate expectations → → fiscal policy adjustments→ and has basically used a lot of available methods. As I said before, the more methods the Japanese government uses, but the increasingly uncontrolled the yen means the government has run out of options. This also means that the Japanese government and central bank have experienced serious policy divisions and loss of control. 3. Two months ago, Finance Minister Katayama frequently communicated with Bensent about exchange rate management, and Betcent's attitude gradually changed, shifting from initially default to now supporting exchange rate intervention. 4. The Japanese government has repeatedly made currency exchanges

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