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Kshsb
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我现在有个越来越强的感觉：这轮周期里，很多人期待的“山寨季”，大概率不会以大家熟悉的方式出现。
以前市场是先 BTC，再 ETH，最后山寨一起爆。
但现在资金结构不一样了，机构更看重流动性，市场更偏向少数龙头和基础设施。结果就是，真正持续吸金的，往往不是山寨，而是 BTC、ETH、稳定币、RWA、DeFi 龙头这些更有确定性的资产。
山寨的问题在于，它们看起来弹性大，但一旦市场开始收缩风险，它们又是最先被抛弃的那一批。
所以我越来越觉得，很多人以为自己在等山寨季，其实是在等一个已经不太属于这个阶段的市场结构。
可能有局部爆发，但全面山寨狂欢，未必还会像过去那样重演。$ETH $SOL $DOGE #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13%
Kshsb
Why do many people think altcoins are doomed as soon as $BTC market dominance rises?
I actually see it differently.
When $BTC market dominance rises, it often doesn't mean altcoins have no chance at all; rather, the market is re-confirming its risk anchor. Funds return to BTC first, indicating that everyone wants to survive first and prefers to put their positions back into the assets most easily accepted by the market. After BTC stabilizes market sentiment, then funds will look for higher volatility targets.
So the rise in $BTC market dominance shouldn't be seen only as altcoins being suppressed. Sometimes it's just a phase within a bull market: first concentration, then diffusion; first defense, then offense.
I now prefer to understand it as BTC holding up the market first, so altcoins have room to grow afterward. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13%
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