Post

Palantir has already taught us one thing: the earnings numbers don't matter, the guidance for the next quarter is what really counts Palantir surged nearly 15% after hours. Revenue grew 93%, EPS beat expectations, and full-year guidance was raised by nearly $500 million. The CEO bluntly stated — "Strong growth can continue for at least 18 months." Is it impressive? Yes, it is. But if you really treat Palantir as the formula "earnings beat = huge surge" — you'll end up losing everything, even your underwear. Why? Because tech giants have proven that beats don’t matter, next quarter’s guidance is what kills. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple — all beat revenue expectations. So what happened? Microsoft rose 15.5%, Meta dropped over 9%, Apple fell over 4%. The difference? The guidance for the next quarter. Palantir’s 15% rise is because it raised its full-year revenue guidance from $7.65 billion to $8.15 billion. It’s the "can continue for 18 months" statement that drove the rise. The current quarter’s numbers are just the entry ticket; guidance sets the price. Now there are three reports left: AMD, SpaceX, Circle. Three companies, three sectors, three completely different scripts. Don’t apply the same formula to three different stocks. First, AMD (after hours August 4). Wall Street expects revenue of $11.3 billion, adjusted EPS of $1.61. The company’s own guidance is $11.2 billion (plus or minus $300 million), with a Non-GAAP gross margin around 56%. Data center revenue is expected to double to $6.5 billion, server processor growth over 70%. What’s AMD’s biggest variable? AI chips. Q1 data center revenue already hit $5.8 billion (up 57% year-over-year). The MI400 series accelerators and Helios rack platform were just released in July. If AI chip demand beats expectations — go long AI compute-related tokens. If it falls short — hedge. It’s that simple. Don’t bet on direction, bet on the "expectation gap." Next, SpaceX (after hours August 4). This is SpaceX’s first earnings report since going public. Analysts expect revenue of $6.88 billion, a loss per share of $0.23. Starlink is core — internet business expected revenue $3.83 billion, operating profit $1.42 billion. But here’s a painful detail: ARPU (average revenue per user) dropped nearly 25% year-over-year — growth came from price cuts. But the real game isn’t in the earnings report itself. It’s on August 6. About 20% of restricted shares will unlock, corresponding to a market value of about $116 billion. Don’t hold heavy positions before the earnings. Watch the strength of the post-unlock support before making a move. SpaceX’s stock price has already fallen from the IPO price of $135 to below $110, more than halving from the post-IPO high of $225. First earnings + $100 billion unlock = maximum volatility. Want to bet before earnings? Good luck. Finally, Circle (before market open August 5). This one has the most direct impact on the crypto market. Earnings release is before US market open — right during Asian trading hours. Wall Street expects revenue of $717 million, EPS between $0.16 and $0.19. Circle’s revenue is almost entirely tied to USDC circulation and short-term interest rates. The problem — USDC circulation dropped from 77 billion at the end of Q1 to about 73.7 billion at the end of Q2. A 4.6% decrease. Volume is shrinking, but interest rates are rising. The energy shock triggered by the Iran war pushed up short-term market rates, partially offsetting the impact of the USDC balance decline. The core suspense is RLDC margin — how much Circle can retain from USDC reserve yields. Q1 was 41.4%, already exceeding management’s full-year guidance of 38-40%. If Circle’s USDC circulation data beats expectations — it could trigger a valuation recovery across the stablecoin sector. If it falls short — the stablecoin sector will face short-term pressure. The three companies are in three completely different sectors: AI chips, space economy, and stablecoins. Diversifying bets is safer than putting all your chips on one. Palantir has validated the formula "beat expectations + raise guidance = surge." But the remaining three — the scripts are different. AMD depends on AI chip quality. SpaceX depends on post-unlock support. Circle depends on USDC data. Don’t apply Palantir’s script to all stocks. $AMD $SPCX $CRCL #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴