82%.
This is the probability on February 19th that the CLARITY Act will pass in 2026 on Polymarket.
28%.
This is today's data.
In six months, it dropped 54 percentage points.
This is not some analyst's "I think"—this is the result of real money bets. Prediction markets are not crystal balls, but they are more honest than any KOL.
Polymarket dropped from 82% to 28%. Kalshi gives 37%. Galaxy Research cut the predicted probability from 50% directly to 30%.
The smartest money on Wall Street is voting with their feet.
If you are still waiting for the bill to pass and then going all in—
Is your position priced at 28%?
Today, no fluff, just three truths.
Truth One: The time window is closed
Senate Majority Leader Thune has publicly stated: before the recess on August 7th, there will be no full Senate vote on the CLARITY Act.
The reason is there isn’t enough time to complete debate, amendments, and procedural votes.
The Senate reconvenes on August 3rd and recesses on August 7th—only 5 working days remain.
As of Monday, August 3rd, the CLARITY Act was not even on the Senate’s daily agenda.
Procedurally, a motion to end debate requires 16 senators’ signatures; if submitted on August 5th, the earliest vote would be August 7th.
That’s a maximum 72-hour window to push forward.
Even harsher—the Senate’s first priority after reconvening is not CLARITY but the Russia sanctions bill.
A 616-page bill, with 5 working days, and it’s behind other bills.
Do you think it can pass?
Miss the August window, the earliest is the September 14th reconvening. Then what? The November midterm elections. Lawmakers’ focus will be on campaigns, who cares about you?
The window is closed. All that remains is the sound of the door shutting.
Truth Two: The ethics clause is a deadlock
Where is the bill stuck?
Public officials holding crypto.
Democrats demand strict ethics clauses prohibiting the president and senior officials from issuing or holding crypto assets while in office.
Republicans agree to the ban but want enforcement handed to the Department of Justice (DOJ).
Here’s the problem—the nominee for Attorney General is Trump’s former personal lawyer, who earned over $1 billion from crypto last year.
Democrats say: self-regulation? What a joke.
Republicans say: the clause can be amended.
By July 31st, bipartisan senators sent a new ethics compromise to the White House. The core change includes the state attorney general’s enforcement role.
Trump is weighing it.
But as of today, no public consensus.
One clause has stalled the entire summer.
From "no text" to "text disagreements," to "ethics clause deadlock"—each step delays and erodes market confidence.
You think it’s legislative bargaining. Actually, it’s a smokescreen for conflicts of interest.
Truth Three: The 60-vote threshold is a hard constraint
This is the harshest reality.
The Senate requires 60 votes to pass.
Republicans have 53 seats.
Even if all Republicans support, they need at least 7 Democrats.
But the reality is worse—Republicans are not unified. Hawley and Paul are explicitly opposed. McConnell’s stance is unclear.
The actual available votes are less than 51.
What about Democrats? When the House passed it last year, it got over 70 Democratic votes. But in the Senate, only 2 Democrats openly support it.
On July 22nd, the day the text was released, several likely Democratic yes votes publicly said "not enough."
One week to turn 7 no votes into yes?
Harder than Bitcoin hitting $70,000 in a day.
Oh, and there’s a hidden killer—the banks.
The stablecoin yield clause (Section 404) remains unresolved. Banks want a complete ban on stablecoin interest payments; the crypto industry wants users to earn interest directly.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon personally intervened to block this clause before recess.
Every concession peels a layer off your future on-chain earnings.
To be blunt—
What does 28% mean?
It means the market thinks the bill passing this year is a low-probability event.
Not "possible," but "unlikely."
Is your position priced accordingly?
If you still hold a large amount of altcoins, betting on a rally after the bill passes—
You’re betting on a 72% chance that won’t happen.
Jiang Zhuoer said if the CLARITY Act cannot pass before recess, Bitcoin may complete the last drop of the bear bottom.
The 62000-63000 USD range has an 8% chip concentration, similar to the eve of the 2022 FTX crash.
High concentration + negative news = violent redistribution.
You’re not holding. You’re waiting to be redistributed.
$BTC$ETH$SOL#CLARITY法案错过休会窗口
Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more
