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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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新的一周开始,特朗普的“嘴”又该上班了! 这几个月特朗普都是在周五放狠话,然后闭嘴,周末晚上在来一手TACO,节奏非常明显 核心目的就是通过一次比一次更强的军事与外交施压,让伊朗、地区调停国开始妥协与斡旋,从而达到自己的外交与谈判目的 套路虽然陈旧、老套且简单,但是面对美国目前的军事实力以及特朗普糟糕的“口碑”谁都不敢赌他敢不敢动手,所以效果还是有的 这就像在法治社会,一个正常人拿把刀,你未必怕他伤害你,但是如果有人告诉你这个人是一个“疯子”,估计谁碰到都要退避三舍,让自己变成疯狗、疯子对于特朗普倒未必不是一件坏事 当然,在好用的套路可用的空间还是有限,上上周就开始声明最大规模打击,上周增加了袭击规模的描述,这周呢?如果本周伊朗还是一味的头铁,特朗普可选项就不多了,只能逼着真正对伊朗实施大规模袭击? 不过,美伊局势也不是没有进展,虽然伊朗不想承认,但是面对军事恐吓,伊朗与阿曼的海峡共管协议依旧出现了一定突破,接下来就要看实际版本如何,如果这个版本可以得到伊朗与美国共同认可,美伊将会回归谈判桌! 对于风险市场来说,近期美伊地缘带来的负面效果已经减弱很多,同理,美伊如果回归谈判桌带来的利好效果还有多少?显然不会太多 最敏感的依旧是国际原油的价格还有美油,美油先看能到75在说,稳在75下方就要可以期待一下65的价格了!不过这个过程需要时间!#美伊重回谈判桌,油价回吐
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
If you are bullish on crude oil, you need to watch out for the pitfalls in Iran's rhetoric! So far, Iran is verbally tough, currently stating that the agreement with Oman has nothing to do with negotiations with the US, but in fact, it is addressing the core issue—the Strait. Iran's tough talk is obvious, so don't just watch the words, watch what it actually does. If the joint management plan of the Strait with Oman is actively promoted, it is actually beneficial to the US-Iran negotiations. At this stage, the Strait issue is the main obstacle preventing both sides from returning to the negotiating table. Once Iran and Oman actively discuss the joint management plan of the Strait, it subconsciously means advancing negotiations. The final plan would weaken Iran's right to charge fees for the Strait. If the US agrees, it essentially means advancing US-Iran negotiations. Therefore, Iran's current tough diplomatic rhetoric is only for international and internal audiences; don't think it really wants to close the negotiation window #美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施,使馆发撤离预警

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