Brothers, next week the scene for SPCX will be brutal.
After the market closes on August 4, SpaceX's first earnings report since going public will be released. Two days later, on August 6, 911.5 million restricted shares will be unlocked. At the current stock price, nearly $100 billion in market value will flood the market.
Currently, only 640 million shares are tradable, accounting for 5% of the total shares. After unlocking, this will double directly to 12%.
Even more intense, short sellers have already amassed 219.3 million shares, accounting for 34% of the publicly tradable shares, with a nominal value of $24.6 billion. This makes it one of the most heavily shorted companies in the US.
The stock price has dropped from a high of $225 to $108. Elon Musk’s net worth has evaporated by over $600 billion in just over a month.
Everyone is shouting "Run!"
But after combing through all the news and prospectuses, I found one line — the founder’s shares are locked until June 2027.
Elon Musk holds about 42% of the shares, valued at over $1 trillion. These shares have no early unlocking clauses.
What does this mean?
The biggest player won’t sell a single share.
It’s like in crypto — Satoshi’s address never moves, Vitalik publicly declared he won’t sell ETH for three years, CZ said he’s locking Binance Coin for five years.
The founder’s attitude determines the ultimate ceiling of the project.
Who are the people selling on August 6? Early employees, suppliers, financial investors. They take the money to improve their lives, pay mortgages, and cover their kids’ tuition. These people were never diamond hands.
The real operator, Elon Musk, has locked all his chips on the table, not selling a single one.
Do you think he will just watch his trillion-dollar company get crushed?
Think deeper.
Why June 2027?
Because between 2026 and 2027, SpaceX will definitely have bigger fundamental events waiting — Starship fully matures, Starlink spins off IPO, AI business valuation re-evaluation.
Morgan Stanley’s $300 target price includes $152 just for the enterprise AI business alone. The current price is $108 — the market is basically giving away the AI business.
Elon Musk locks his chips until 2027 because he knows the real value hasn’t been unleashed yet. He’s waiting for bigger fireworks.
He’s not in a hurry, so why are you?
The unlocking flood on August 6 will inevitably cause short-term pain. $100 billion in supply hitting the market will pressure the stock price — that’s an objective fact. But if you look at the chart in 2027 — $108 might be a golden opportunity.
Diamond hands never look at the August 6 chart.
Diamond hands look at the stars and seas of 2027.
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