Everyone is waiting for 911.5 million shares to crash the market: what if they haven't been sold at all?
SpaceX's first unlocking will unlock approximately $102.3 billion in potential stock supply. SPCX has already fallen half from its peak. What truly tests on the lock-up day may not be how large the selling pressure is, but how much the market has previously overestimated the selling demand. Wall Street likes to paint Curfew Day as a cliff. On SpaceX's cliff hangs a striking number: 911.5 million shares. Image | SpaceX dominates the screen in New York's Times Square on its launch day. The company initially had very few publicly circulating shares, and the scarce supply once amplified market demand. The company will release its first quarterly report after listing after market close on August 4. Under its phased unlocking arrangement, employees and some early investors will hold up to 911.5 million shares, which will be eligible for sale on the second full trading day after the earnings report. Based on the current $112.20, the nominal value of these shares is approximately $102.3 billion. If the schedule remains unchanged, the market will see real supply for the first time around August 6. "Qualified to sell" is easily translated as "about to sell." Between the two lies the decision of each shareholder. The unlocking documents do not click to sell on behalf of employees, nor do they require early-stage funds to exit on the same day. It removes only one restriction: shares that were previously unsellable can now be sold. The extent of the stock price impact depends on how many people participate, how quickly they sell, and how much capital is willing to take over. The market currently knows the first number and knows almost nothing about the rest. 900 million shares is a license for SpaceX to enter the public market when it goes public
