#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ The probability of a September rate hike returns to 50/50 $BTC $ETH At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the US will release the July CPI. Current market expectations: ✔ Overall CPI year-on-year falls from 3.5% to 3.4% ✔ Core CPI year-on-year falls from 2.6% to 2.5% ✔ Probability of a September rate hike is about 52% Last week's weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll data has pushed the September rate hike probability down from 67% back to 50/50. The real market trade now is which side— inflation or employment— the Fed should be more cautious about. ✔ CPI higher than expected The probability of a September rate hike may heat up again, the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen, and BTC, ETH continue to face pressure. Key BTC levels to watch are 63000–63500; if broken, it may test 62000 further; if ETH falls below 1850, be cautious of a further pullback to 1800–1820. ✔ CPI meets expectations The market is unlikely to immediately end the 50/50 pricing; the market is more likely to experience a double-sided shakeout before awaiting PPI, retail data, and the next employment report. BTC may continue to oscillate between 63000–66000, while ETH focuses on the 1850–1950 range. ✔ CPI lower than expected The probability of a September rate hike continues to decline, and risk assets may rebound. However, BTC needs to firmly hold above 66000, and ETH must break through 1950 and hold above 2000 to confirm that this is not just a short-term recovery driven by data stimulus. This CPI release will rewrite the September rate hike pricing but will not directly decide whether the Fed will ultimately raise rates. There is still another nonfarm payroll and CPI release before the September meeting; Wednesday is more like the first round of repricing, not the final answer. ✔ Trading rule Never bet on the first candlestick after data release. Data-driven moves often first sweep one side before moving in the real direction. Before repricing is complete, the win rate of the first candlestick may be zero. My judgment is: CPI determines the short-term volatility direction, and key price levels determine whether the trend can continue. Data can create sentiment, but ultimately it depends on whether BTC can hold above 66000 and ETH can break through 1950.

$SKHYNIX $SNDK $MU SK Hynix pre-market today: I continue to be bearish, with a final target of 930 Last night, the memory sector did not rebound uniformly but showed clear divergence. ✔ SanDisk and Western Digital oversold recovery ✔ Micron and Seagate continue to weaken ✔ SK Hynix ADR continues to decline ✔ Selling pressure remains on DRAM, HBM, and AI semiconductor sectors SK Hynix contracts have been falling continuously from around 1055, with both lows and highs moving downward, maintaining an overall bearish structure. ✔ Key prices to watch today 1050: My original short position entry 1045—1055: Strong resistance and ideal area to add to shorts 1015—1030: First rebound area to consider adding to shorts 1000: Short-term bull/bear dividing line 980—970: Current first support zone 950: Important support and position reduction observation point during the decline 930: Final take-profit target after breaking 950 1070—1080: If price stabilizes above this, the short logic fails My final target is adjusted to 930, but 930 is not guaranteed unconditionally. Price needs to effectively break below 980—970 first, then continue to break 950, and if the rebound cannot retake that level, only then will the space to 930 truly open. If the price rebounds to 1015—1030 and forms a lower high, I will consider adding to shorts slightly; if it returns to 1045—1055 and is resisted again, that is a more ideal area to add to shorts. Adding to shorts is not about adding more as price rises, but waiting for price to return to resistance, confirming the rebound failure before adding more shorts. ✔ Trading iron rule Never bet on the first candlestick at the open, because before the market completes re-pricing, the win rate could be zero. My view remains unchanged: SK Hynix is still weak on a large scale, rebounds are opportunities to add to shorts, watch for support at 950 first, and final take-profit at 930.

8.7｜100U Contract Challenge｜2nd Profit Withdrawal Start Date: July 31 This Withdrawal: 47U Account After Withdrawal: 100U Total Withdrawn: 207U Current Total Net Profit: 207U 【Challenge Rules】 ✔ Initial principal fixed at 100U ✔ No additional principal added ✔ Withdrawal amounts and timing are flexible ✔ Each withdrawal is recorded separately ✔ Final profit = total withdrawn + account balance - 100U 【Personal Trading Rules】 ✔ Do not pursue a high win rate, pursue a reasonable risk-reward ratio ✔ Accept judgment errors, do not prove yourself by holding losing positions ✔ Exit promptly when wrong, hold as much as possible when right ✔ Do not be affected by short-term profits or losses, strictly follow trading rules ✔ Control risk first, then consider profit Currently mainly trading $ETH $SKHY $MU Every confident trade will be documented in posts Only personal trading records, not investment advice.

$SKHYNIX $SNDK $MU Shorting Hynix's upcoming price path Hynix opened and dropped 50 points from the high of 1057 to 1000 But today Hynix did not cause significant fluctuations in SanDisk and Micron I might partially take profits before the evening open 1050: Entry point for short positions at the upper band 1010—1000: First support and round number threshold 1000—985: Core area determining whether the decline continues 950: Extended take-profit target after breaking support My take-profit target is 950, but I don't consider 950 a guaranteed bottom. After the price reaches 1000—985, a rebound is very likely. Only if it effectively breaks below this range and the rebound fails to retake it will the downside space to 950 truly open up.

#Storage stocks selling pressure eases, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $SKHYNIX On Monday, SK Hynix opened with a double kill of longs and shorts. I shorted at the 1050 upper rail, targeting a take profit at 950. On Monday, SK Hynix's opening first dropped then rallied. The contract first dipped near 1000, sweeping out bottom-fishing long positions, then quickly pulled up to 1045–1050, clearing out those who chased shorts at the open. Completing a double kill of longs and shorts in a short time, this movement looks more like a re-pricing and concentrated leverage clearing at the open, rather than the market having chosen a direction. ✔ Why does a double kill of longs and shorts occur? SK Hynix contracts trade 24 hours, while the Korean spot stock reopens later, requiring the contract price to quickly align with the spot price. Previously, SK Hynix had a continuous sharp drop, with many bottom-fishing positions clustered near 1000, and many rebound short positions near 1050. Liquidity concentrated at the open was released, first sweeping long stop losses, then clearing shorts on the way up, resulting in violent price swings. ✔ Why did I choose to short at 1050? I did not chase shorts near 1000 but waited for the price to rebound to around 1050 before entering. 1050 is simultaneously close to: ✔ The upper boundary of the short-term ascending channel ✔ Monday's opening rebound high ✔ Previous trapped positions and short-term resistance zone ✔ The liquidity high point after the double kill of longs and shorts Compared to chasing shorts during a sharp drop, shorting at 1050 has a clearer invalidation point and a more reasonable risk-reward ratio. ✔ Upcoming price path 1050: short entry point 1010–1000: first support and round number level 1000–985: core area determining if the decline continues 950: extended take profit target after breaking support 1070–1080: if price stabilizes here, the short logic fails My take profit target is 950, but I do not treat 950 as a guaranteed level. After price reaches 1000–985, a rebound is likely first. Only if this area is effectively broken and the rebound fails to retake it will the downside space to 950 truly open. ✔ Trading iron rule Never bet on the first candlestick at the open. The first candlestick at the open bears the task of re-pricing and clearing liquidity and can completely reverse within minutes. Without structural confirmation, the first candlestick at the open has nearly zero win rate for me. #Storage stocks selling pressure eases, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $SKHYNIX Let the market kill both longs and shorts first, then wait for the price to return to a clear support or resistance level. This trade is not about chasing shorts just because SK Hynix fell a lot, but about waiting for a rebound to touch the channel upper rail before shorting under a larger bearish bias. The direction can be wrong, but entry position, stop loss, and risk-reward ratio must be clear.

During the weekend volatility, I opened a small long position on LAB at 0.122 LAB$LAB The weekend market showed no clear trend, so I opened a small long position on LAB around 0.122. This is neither a trend reversal trade nor a long-term bottom fishing. I am trading a potential oversold rebound after the price returns to a short-term support zone. LAB has dropped nearly 90% in the past month and is still in a downtrend on the larger timeframe. But 0.122 is close to the recent low range of 0.118–0.122. My entry is near the lower boundary of this range, so it’s not chasing a breakout, and the invalidation point downward is relatively easy to identify. The logic behind this long position mainly includes three points: First, there is short-term support around 0.118–0.122, making it easier to measure the space for further decline versus rebound. Second, the area between 0.129–0.132 is a clear resistance zone recently. If the price rebounds to this level, it can provide a reasonable take-profit range. Third, I only took a small position. For counter-trend rebound trades like this, position sizing is more important than directional judgment. However, the trading environment for this position is not ideal. Weekend liquidity is weak, and small-cap coins are more prone to spikes and false breakouts. Currently, LAB has a high proportion of long accounts, and the funding rate is positive, indicating that many funds are still betting on a rebound at low levels. If the price continues to fall, these crowded long positions may accelerate the decline. Therefore, my current trading plan is: 0.129–0.132 is the first take-profit zone; I will reduce 30%–40% of the position upon reaching it. 0.139–0.145 is the main take-profit zone; if the price breaks above 0.132 with volume, I will observe the remaining position here. 0.150–0.155 is only an extended target for now, to be considered only if the price breaks and holds above 0.145 with volume. For stop loss, if the 4-hour candle closes below 0.118, I will consider exiting proactively; to prevent sudden spikes, a hard stop loss can be set around 0.113–0.114. Based on the entry price of 0.122: If it falls to 0.114, the loss is about 6.6%. If it rises to 0.132, the profit is about 8.2%. If it rises to 0.145, the profit is about 18.9%. So 0.129–0.132 is more suitable for reducing position and lowering risk, while 0.139–0.145 is the main target range for this trade. Additionally, third-party unlocking schedules indicate a possible LAB token release around August 14. If the price cannot reclaim 0.129–0.132 by August 12–13, I will consider reducing position early to avoid uncertainty from the unlocking event. I am not buying LAB for a reversal at 0.122, but rather using a clear stop loss to bet on a rebound from the low support back to the upper range. The entry position is acceptable, but the trend and capital structure are average, so this is only suitable for a small position trial. This is just a record of my personal trading logic and not investment advice.

OKB suddenly surged, what happened? $OKB Recently, OKB suddenly rose from the 85–86 USD range to around 95 USD, increasing about 5%–6% in 24 hours, with a gain of over 10% in the past 7 days. There was no new massive burn announcement this time. I tend to believe: the X Layer ecosystem news ignited the move, OKB’s low circulating supply amplified the increase, and after breaking 90 USD, contract funds were attracted to chase the rally. The most direct catalyst was Circle officially integrating native USDC and CCTP into X Layer on August 7. Previously, X Layer mainly used the cross-chain version of USDC; now it can directly use Circle-issued native USDC with 1:1 redemption, and transfer funds across 25 other chains via CCTP. The significance for OKB is not that "listing USDC immediately generates huge revenue," but that X Layer’s stablecoin liquidity, institutional settlement, and DeFi infrastructure become more complete. Recent on-chain data also shows improvement: ✔ X Layer TVL reached about $117 million, up 2.7% in 24 hours ✔ Stablecoin supply reached $2.078 billion, up 2.67% in 7 days ✔ DEX trading volume in the past 7 days was about $548 million, up 10.76% ✔ Daily transaction count about 1.44 million OKB is the only Gas asset on X Layer, and future deployment of the Exchange OS market will require staking OKB. What the market is trading on this time is actually the expectation that "X Layer is moving from storytelling to real expansion." The second reason is the chip structure. OKB’s total supply is fixed at 21 million, with a current market cap of about $2 billion. The 24-hour trading volume increased by about 30%, but overall liquidity is still not deep. For a coin with low supply and relatively concentrated trading, once sustained spot buying appears, price elasticity will be significantly higher than BTC or ETH. Contracts are also amplifying the trend. OKB open interest increased about 18%–20% in 24 hours; after breaking 90 USD, some short positions were liquidated. But this cannot be fully defined as a short squeeze. Because while the price rose, open interest also increased, indicating that besides short covering, many new longs entered. Pure short squeezes usually show price rising with open interest decreasing. The good news is that the current funding rate is only about 0.0025%–0.01%, not yet at extreme long crowding. So my judgment is: This rally has real ecological catalysts and capital amplification after breaking 90 USD; it’s not a baseless "pump by manipulators." However, native USDC has just launched, and how much new capital it can bring to X Layer still needs further data verification. The current price increase speed already outpaces the growth of on-chain fundamentals. Next, focus on three levels: ✔ Holding above 95 USD to have a chance to challenge 100 USD ✔ Pullback to 90 USD without breaking it means the breakout structure remains valid ✔ Falling below 90 USD may retest the 85–86 USD range This is not a violent move caused by another supply cut. It’s more like the market finally starting to reprice the ecological progress of X Layer.