$SPCX 🚨 The SPCX lock-up timeline is here! August could bring the biggest test! Many people are only focused on the Starship launch, but they overlook an important factor affecting the stock price — the share lock-up release. 📅 Key lock-up dates 🔥 Early August (after Q2 earnings report) * The first and largest wave of lock-up release * About 20% of shares become tradable, up to about 30% if conditions are met * ⚠️ This is the most important event of the year to watch 📌 Around August 20 * Second batch of about 7% shares unlocked 📌 Around September 9 * Third batch of about 7% shares unlocked 📌 Around October 9 * Fourth batch of about 7% shares unlocked 📌 Around October 24 * Fifth batch of about 7% shares unlocked 📌 After Q3 earnings report * Another approximately 28% of shares unlocked * Another wave of significant potential selling pressure 📌 Around December 8 (end of 180-day lock-up) * Most of the remaining locked shares released * Lock-up period basically ends ⸻ Will the lock-up release definitely cause a big drop? ❌ Not necessarily. Historically, there are usually three patterns: ① Price drops in advance (most common) Funds worry about the lock-up release and sell early; on the actual release day, the negative impact may already be priced in. ② Big drop on the lock-up release day If many shareholders choose to sell, the stock price may quickly pull back. ③ Price rises after lock-up release If earnings, Starship launch, or other positive news exceed expectations, or if the market has already priced in the lock-up release, a rebound after the negative event is possible. ⸻ I believe the three most important SPCX dates this year are: 🚀 Starship test flight results 📊 Early August Q2 earnings report 🔓 Early August first large-scale lock-up release These three events combined will likely determine SPCX’s direction in the coming months. What do you think? Will SPCX drop in advance, or start a new rally after the lock-up release? Feel free to discuss.

📈 Some insights on resisting losses I used to think that as long as I held on, I could recover my losses when the market rebounded. Later, I learned an approach from the comments: ✅ When the price rebounds to a position with smaller losses, first close part of the position; ✅ When the price falls back to a lower level, buy back the position; ✅ By trading back and forth, reduce the holding cost instead of passively holding on. A simple example: 📉 Opening price: 1.00 📈 Rebound to: 0.95 (loss reduced) ➡️ Close part of the position 📉 Then drop to: 0.90 ➡️ Buy back the same position This way, the average holding price will be lower than before, making it easier to break even with the same rebound later. Resisting losses doesn’t mean stubbornly holding on; doing T trades to reduce costs is also a form of risk management. Unfortunately, I only learned this today, after having liquidated several times and lost 1700U already 😭 I hope this experience can help friends struggling with contracts: The market won’t rise because of your cost price; learning to manage positions and reduce costs is more important than blindly holding on.

$BEAT After more than an hour without seeing a new low, it's really on the verge of zeroing. The neighboring KIT has been trading sideways for several days. The bulls can eat up funding costs, but this thing is surprising—it dropped so much in a single day! After two consecutive days of decline, it fell from 3.98 to below 1, and it's still falling! It's too complicated—the lower it is, the more troops there are. Losing money means paying funding fees, and you're trapped in this cycle of losing money and paying for funds!

$BEAT is really on the path to zero, breaking below 1 multiple times and now stabilizing under 1. It dropped 51% yesterday and 44% today. How can you still play this? Are we going to play it down to 0.1 like lab? The liquidity is gone, this coin is basically dead!

$CL Just saw in my watchlist, crude oil suddenly rose above 84 I held a short position for a few days, took profit yesterday and sold, but sold too early, Top in holding shorts, but not good at making money! Crude oil has risen to 84 dollars again. What is the market mainly trading this time during the rise? From what I see, the core reasons are two: First, the expectation of US-Iran negotiations cooling down. Previously, the market was betting that the US and Iran could quickly reach an agreement, conflicts would ease, the Strait of Hormuz would resume normal navigation, crude oil supply would recover, and oil prices would naturally fall. But currently, the negotiation progress is not as smooth as imagined. Both sides still have differences on ceasefire conditions, compensation, and subsequent arrangements. So the market has started to add a "geopolitical premium" back to crude oil. Second, the supply risk in the Strait of Hormuz has not been completely resolved. This is the most noteworthy point at present. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume normal navigation, Middle East crude oil exports will continue to be affected. The market is not worried about how much supply is lost in a day, but how long this situation will last. The longer the time, the greater the pressure on oil prices. Therefore, crude oil rising back to 84 dollars now does not mean demand suddenly became particularly strong, but the market has started to worry about supply issues again. Next, I think the focus is on two signals. If there is a substantial breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal navigation, oil prices are likely to fall quickly. If negotiations continue to stall or conflicts escalate further, then 84 dollars may just be a mid-point, and 86–90 dollars could be tested. So the 84-dollar level now should not be simply understood as "price rises, so keep going long." The real next direction for crude oil depends on: The outcome of US-Iran negotiations. The navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. Once these two pieces of news show significant changes, oil prices may react very quickly. At present, the market's expectation for a quick end to negotiations is declining, so the strengthening of oil prices is understandable. #霍尔木兹海峡通航协议未落地，油价风险升温

$BEAT was just bouncing above 1.2, but half an hour later, it's already dropped to around 1.0. This is really going to crush the bulls! This coin is so shameless!

$BEAT is done, done, can't see the bottom anymore, it dropped to 1.2! It's really heading towards zero, I'm scared!

$ETH short position just got unlocked yesterday, but the long position I entered got stuck again. This really feels like getting hit after getting off early again!

$HOME this coin, I placed an order last night, and today looking at the history record, it has already taken profit, haha. Rarely got a 15U gain on one trade, but I bought a bit too little, only 5U, got 15U, satisfied! Just hope the other positions can be freed from losses soon, still 9 positions stuck, please free them!

$BEAT $KAITO $SPCX were fine before sleep, even recovered some, but after sleeping, all are losses. Gold rose to around 4420, rocket profits also gave back, Sandisk was smashed back to around 1280! kait was smashed even lower! Especially beat, it almost broke through, dropping directly from 3.98 to around 1.3! NEAR, which is a heavier position coin, also dropped from 1.66 back to around 1.58, all the recovered gains were wiped out!

$BEAT is really ruthless, bought more at 2.27, the take profit at 3.99 never triggered, the highest was 3.98 before it turned down, now it's worse, directly dropped to 1.3. I also added positions at 1.8 and 1.4, this crash is just too brutal

$XAU started shorting gold at 4320 last Friday, and once again got stuck halfway up the mountain. This thing is really tough. When the non-farm payroll data came out, it surged once, and then stayed high. After sleeping and waking up, it surged close to 4400 again! Another resistance position is getting deeper and deeper, time to add another one!