On August 8th at block height 961632, $BTC BIP-110 officially entered the mandatory signaling phase, and nodes supporting it began rejecting blocks that did not signal, essentially fighting against themselves. So what happened? In the previous difficulty period of 2016 blocks, only 51 signaled support, accounting for 2.53%, while the activation threshold was 55%, falling far short. Even more awkward is the situation of the forked chain. As of August 9th, after mining two blocks, this chain got stuck at 961633 for a full 17 hours with no movement, while the Bitcoin main chain had already reached 961744, ahead by 111 blocks. In the new period, the main chain miners' signaling support rate dropped to zero, and even Simple Mining under the previously supportive Ocean pool openly refused, bluntly stating: hash power is a vote with real money, and this proposal isn't worth following. Saylor’s words were even harsher: 99.85% of the hash power remains with Bitcoin, BIP-110 can fork freely, and the network can freely choose not to follow. Bitcoin continues to operate normally, all according to design. In short, this whole turmoil was a protest without an audience from start to finish. The proposal aimed to ban inscriptions and clear junk data, which some agreed with, but Bitcoin’s rules are simple: to change consensus, you must first get past the miners. The miners’ collective silence is the strongest veto. The forked chain did not implement replay protection, so don’t be tempted to sell forked coins these days—be careful not to risk your real BTC on the mainnet. Stay steady and do nothing, and nothing will happen.

Ethereum's movement today is nerve-wracking. That surge past 1938 USD just after 6 AM didn't hold, and a big bearish candle slammed it back down to 1906, marking the 24-hour low. It's currently quoted at 1916.82, down 0.5%, stuck in a middle ground, neither up nor down. Looking at the chart, a few details stand out: after the volume spike on the early morning surge candle, there was massive sell-off, indicating clear selling pressure around 1938, trapping those who chased the highs. Afterwards, the price oscillated between 1912 and 1928, with moving averages tangled together, showing no clear short-term direction. Honestly, this kind of movement is the most frustrating. The 1938 level above is today's high and a strong resistance, while 1906 below is the intraday low; breaking below that means watching the 1900 psychological level. The twenty-dollar range in between is just a battleground where bulls and bears exhaust each other, with shrinking volume indicating big players are on the sidelines, and few are willing to put real money into pushing it up. My view is, if it can't break through 1938, don't expect a one-way trend. Most likely, it will continue to oscillate within the 1906 to 1938 box, waiting for the next news or capital flow to break the balance. Going in heavy to bet on direction now has low odds of success. Short-term traders can play the box's upper and lower edges with high sell and low buy, but stop-losses are a must, especially with those half-hour $30 spikes early this morning—holding through one can cause serious damage. In short: $ETH is just in a consolidation market today. Don't chase, don't hold heavy, keep your position light, and wait for it to choose its own direction.

Wednesday's CPI is currently the only script for the entire market. First, let's clarify the background: July's non-farm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, yet the US stock market was pushed to historic highs by tech stocks, and the pricing for a September rate hike was once suppressed to 44%. It seems the market is less afraid of tightening now, but Warsh has already made it clear—if inflation is on the hotter side, he really dares to hike in September. So the August 12 CPI report is not just a formality; it directly sets the tone for the September 16 decision. The current expectation is a year-over-year increase of 3.3% to 3.4%, slightly lower than June's 3.5%. If the core can truly fall back to 2.4%, the rate hike pricing will most likely continue to cool down; otherwise, if it exceeds expectations by 0.1 percentage points, that 44% figure can instantly spike. For crypto, this is a liquidity arithmetic problem. As of the morning of August 10, BTC was at $65,021, up slightly by 0.3%, ETH at $1,918, SOL at $76.62, DOGE at $0.0697, down 0.5%. The fear and greed index is only 31, showing market sentiment clearly hasn't joined the US stock market's wild celebration. The reason is simple: money is locked in short-term debt earning interest due to high rates, and Bitcoin is the most liquidity-sensitive among risk assets. If CPI is cooler and rate hike expectations ease, $BTC has a chance to break above and hold $66,000 with volume; if CPI is hotter, holding the $64,000 round number will be a problem. My view is that neither bulls nor bears dare to heavily position now; the market is sideways waiting for the data. The real opening is Wednesday night; don't make random moves before then.

$SOL is moving quite steadily this wave. On the evening of August 9, SOL's current price is $76.92, up 0.69% in 24 hours, with a daily low of 75.75 and a high touching 77.10. The range isn't large but the center of gravity is shifting upward. The recent trend is actually quite interesting—on the early morning of August 7, it dropped to 72.35, likely shaking out many traders, but then it climbed back steadily, gaining nearly 5 points in three days. The low was 72.35, the high 77.10, about a 6% rebound range, making it comfortable for those who bought at the bottom. From a technical perspective, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all in a bullish alignment, with the price above all moving averages, which is a typical slow bull climb structure. The area around 75.7 to 76 is short-term support, with resistance first seen at the intraday high of 77.1; if it breaks through, look toward 78. Volume is moderate, without a surge in buying, indicating that the main players are slowly accumulating rather than retail sentiment pushing it. This kind of movement is actually healthy; sharp rallies are more prone to collapse. In terms of trading, a light long position can be tried if it pulls back near 76 without breaking it; if it falls below 75.5, stop loss and exit. Overall, SOL's current recovery is not yet complete, but don't get overexcited—chasing above 77 has low cost-effectiveness, waiting for a pullback is more attractive.

On Friday (August 7), the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.62% to above 7780 points, setting a new closing record high. The Dow Jones increased by 0.28%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.3%, marking the largest weekly gain since mid-April. The driver behind this new high is interesting—not because the economy is too strong, but because July's nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative. With weak employment, the pressure to raise interest rates eased instantly, and the market is betting that the Federal Reserve won't tighten further, initially easing liquidity expectations. This "bad news is good news" scenario essentially means money is looking for an outlet. As interest rate expectations decline, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields soften, benefiting risk assets across the board. The S&P is less than 3% away from 8000 points, and with the current momentum, reaching that milestone by year-end is not a dream. Sectors like communications and AI are still accelerating capital inflows. The crypto market is also benefiting. BTC is currently holding around $64,000, and ETH is near $1870. Although their gains lag behind the stock market, the logic is the same: cooling rate hike expectations plus anticipated liquidity easing. Historical experience shows that when U.S. stock risk appetite warms, some funds usually overflow into the crypto space, but this time the overflow is slower—ETF funds remain cautious, and BTC is repeatedly testing the $65,000 resistance level. The core contradiction is one: whether the nonfarm data is a one-time disturbance or a trend inflection point. If upcoming CPI data also weakens, the S&P 8000 and $BTC breaking through $65,000 could happen together; if inflation rebounds, both will suffer. Don't get overexposed; watch the data closely.

$ETH has been quite frustrating these past two days. On the evening of August 9th, the current price is $1922, fluctuating within a narrow range of about 1912 to 1926 over 24 hours, with the price change almost hugging the zero line—a typical sideways tug-of-war. Trading volume has also shrunk significantly, with funds clearly on the sidelines; no one is willing to take the initiative at this level. Looking upward, 1943 is the recent rebound high, which was tested but then pushed back down, indicating considerable selling pressure above. To break through, real money needs to come in; pure sentiment won’t suffice. Downward, 1855 is the low point formed during this correction, serving as the short-term bulls’ psychological bottom line. As long as it doesn’t break below this, the structure remains intact. The core issue now is still the capital flow. ETF inflows have been unstable recently, and on the macro side, the Fed’s stance is inconsistent—sometimes hawkish, sometimes dovish. When U.S. Treasury yields rise, all risk assets tend to contract, and $ETH, which has a higher beta than BTC, is even more sensitive. Moreover, with the altcoin season delayed, on-exchange funds prefer to cluster around BTC rather than risk adding to $ETH positions, resulting in this stagnant sideways movement. In the short term, as long as the range isn’t broken, trade the oscillation: buyers near 1900, sellers above 1930. Watch for a breakout to determine direction. If there’s a real opportunity, it will come with volume—breakouts without volume are just playing games.

ETF money is coming back. In the past 7 days, the net inflow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF exceeded $830 million, with over $100 million absorbed in a single day on August 9 alone. This pace is a rare sign of recovery after a record outflow of $4.5 billion in June. But honestly, the price hasn't really cooperated. On August 9, BTC hovered around $65,000, closing at $64,956, almost unchanged in 24 hours; ETH was weaker, only at $1,909. Money is flowing in, but prices aren't rising—what does this mean? It means institutions are bottom-fishing while retail investors are still on the sidelines watching. The Fear & Greed Index is only 31, still in the "fear" zone, and derivatives longs and shorts are basically evenly split; no one dares to heavily bet on a direction. The core contradiction now is: the Fed's rate cut expectations have created liquidity imagination, but the market has just climbed out of a 21-month low at 58,115, and the wounds haven't healed well. For BTC to truly take over, it must first hold steady between 66,000 and 70,000, which was the hardest-hit area in June; $ETH depends on when ETF funds can consistently rotate to it, instead of BTC always having the exclusive share. In the short term, 62,000 is BTC's strong support; if it breaks, this inflow story will have to be rewritten. Whether it holds or not, watching capital flow is more effective than watching candlesticks.

On the afternoon of August 9, $BTC is currently priced at $64,816, down 0.4% in 24 hours, with a high of 65,189 and a low of 64,722. It has been fluctuating within a narrow range of just four to five hundred dollars all day, a typical sideways grind. Looking at the 1-hour chart, it pulled up from 64,264 to above 65,400 yesterday, then turned down in the early morning. The current price is below the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, showing a rise and fall with weakening momentum. Volume is also lacking; there is no volume on the rebound or the decline, and both bulls and bears are reluctant to act. This kind of market can be summed up in two words: waiting for the wind. After the non-farm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, expectations for rate cuts have increased, which should be positive for risk assets. However, BTC did not rise, indicating that the positive news has already been priced in and bulls lack confidence. Sentiment is also cold, with the Fear & Greed Index at 31, still lingering in the fear zone. Fortunately, there is support below: ETFs have seen a net inflow of over $800 million in a week, and every time the price dips below 64,000, buyers step in. In the short term, watch two levels: above at 65,200—only if it breaks above this can we look towards 66,000-67,000; below at the 64,000 round number—if it breaks, then look for weekly support at 63,000-62,500. Until it breaks, don’t heavily bet on direction; keep positions for breakout confirmation. What we need now is patience.

The past month has been brutal: Micron has pulled back over 30% from its peak, SK Hynix has dropped more than 45% since its listing in Seoul a month ago, and SanDisk and Western Digital have been even worse, halving or nearly halving from their highs. The core logic behind the market panic is simple—fear that the memory cycle has peaked. SK Hynix’s earnings report was record-breaking, yet the stock price still fell, with the "contract price being a ceiling, not a floor." But if you think calmly, is there really a problem on the demand side? No. HBM capacity for 2026 has long been sold out, DRAM contract prices rose 58%-63% in Q2, NAND rose 70%-75%, and new capacity won’t come online until at least 2028. This drop is essentially a valuation digestion after a huge surge—Micron’s stock rose nearly sevenfold in a year, so a correction is normal. The easing of selling pressure indicates the market is starting to distinguish between "cycle peak" and "high-level bubble squeeze," which are two different things. For the crypto market, this line is worth watching. Storage stocks are a barometer for the AI narrative, and AI narratives and crypto currently share the same pool of risk appetite capital. During the weeks when storage stocks plunged, $BTC was also consolidating between $60,000 and $65,000, closing around $64,988 on August 8, with the fear and greed index at only 28, showing similarly fragile sentiment. Tech stocks and crypto are now like grasshoppers on the same rope. My view: The fundamentals of the AI memory bull market are intact; what’s broken is the overly optimistic short-term expectations. As long as storage stocks stabilize and tech risk appetite recovers, crypto might actually see a catch-up rally. The core contradiction remains the same—whether the money is there or not, not whether the story sounds good.

$BTC is currently at $64,955 as of 2 PM on August 8, with a change of only 0.11%, basically sideways and deadlocked. But the 24-hour range is from $64,229 to $65,357, a fluctuation of over a thousand dollars up and down, with bulls and bears having fought several rounds here. Last night’s push to $65,357 had some strength, rising 1.7%, but once it hit above $65,300, it stalled, indicating real selling pressure at that level. The psychological tug-of-war at the $65,000 round number has resumed. The funding rate is only 0.00211%, which is a key signal — long leverage is not crowded at all, and there’s no frenzy of everyone adding leverage. With a light load, the resistance to moving upward is small. Historically, funding rates surged above 0.05% before major tops; at this level now, there isn’t enough fuel for a liquidation cascade. Volume is over $2 billion, not a surge, typical of a consolidation phase. My view: $64,200 to $64,300 has been repeatedly tested as support and won’t fall deeply; $65,357 is the short-term ceiling. Breaking above $65,400 and chasing longs could see prices above $66,000; breaking below $64,200 means caution for a pullback to $63,300. Until the direction is clear, those with high leverage should reduce exposure first — survival is more important than anything.