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Crypture 科噗球
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長線來看還有一個利空, Circle 是持續增發股票去付薪水
一般公司增發是要拿現金去做事,而 Circle 發出去的股票幾乎不是投入生產性資產,而是直接付給人,包含員工薪水、員工認股、商業合作。
今年已增發 1,034 萬股,全年預計約 1,774 萬股,換算市值約 11.9 億,增發 7 %流通量;2027年估計增發約 994 萬股,換算市值約 6.67 億,兩年合計 18.6 億美元,扣掉員工行使選擇權繳回,淨流出約 16.9 億美元,等於 Circle 帳上現金的 98%,而同期回購金額是 0。
而更驚人的是 Circle 最大可增發 Class A 25 億股,目前只用掉 9.3%,還能再增發 10 倍,目前授權可發行總量約 7,870 萬股,約等於流通股的 31%,而且可發行股每年自動補流通股 6%。實際發行量每年由薪酬委員會單方決定,股東沒有否決權。
$CRCL
Crypture 科噗球
Just a one-rate hike allows Circle to earn $53 million effortlessly
From two rate cuts at the beginning of the year to the current expectation of a one-rate hike, if a one-rate hike really happens on 9/16, based on the current USDC circulation of 73.3 billion and counting 106 days until the end of the year, revenue would increase by $53 million and net profit by $20 million.
Coincidentally, ARC mainnet launches on the same day, 9/16. Assuming it can further boost USDC circulation, Morgan Stanley might have to revise their target price upward again after the fact 😂
That said, Circle’s long-term outlook remains unclear. Here we can swing between a dip rebound + rate hike and revenue growth narrative brought by the ARC mainnet, but long-term attention should still focus on USDC circulation growth in Q3, Q4, and into next year.
$CRCL
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