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UKong🥷🪃
UKong🥷🪃
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美股科技内部细分轮动的割裂感真的拉满,周期切换毫无连贯性可言。 之前圈子里扎堆押注存储周期,大家默认内存供需紧张的格局能稳稳扛到2028年,不少人直接拿长线逻辑重仓躺平,结果整个7月存储整条线直接迎来资金集中兑现,个股集体深度回调。 短短三十天不到资金直接调转枪口,场内统一变成光模块走强存储承压的交易主线,这种说变就变的市场风格,长线叙事已经很难吃到稳定收益,大部分时候只能盯着盘面技术形态和主力资金流向做短线波段博弈。 ▶️海量资金扎堆科技赛道 1. 今年全球科技主题基金累计净流入1310亿美元,已经直接超越2025年全年的历史峰值,增量500亿美元; 2. 科技基金年度流入规模已经连续四年保持递增,按照当下的流入速率推算,2026全年科技类基金总流入有望摸到2160亿美元,再度刷新历史; 3. 上周单周就有96亿美元资金进场,全年折算下来美股股票基金总流入将达到6520亿美元,有史以来最高的年度吸纳体量。 一边是巨量热钱疯狂涌入科技大板块推高整体估值,一边是AI算力产业链内部上下游出现严重的资金分流,容错率被无限压缩,交易环境的难度肉眼可见。 $AAOI $QQQ
UKong🥷🪃
UKong🥷🪃
Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed lower, with the Dow ending its five-day winning streak. The overall decline was limited, merely a short-term profit-taking digestion, with no panic selling pressure. The market showed a particularly clear structural divergence, not an overall weakening. Within tech stocks, there was a severe split between gains and losses. The storage chip sector was the most abnormal, opening lower and then rising before still falling broadly. Western Digital led the decline, with SanDisk and SK Hynix weakening simultaneously, while only Seagate closed slightly higher. Other chip sectors were relatively strong, with ARM, Qualcomm, AMD, and TSMC all rising, and Nvidia and Intel making slight adjustments. The AI application sector was the biggest weak spot overnight, with sentiment cooling rapidly and many core stocks plunging. Datadog and Applovin fell over 19%, showing clear signs of short-term capital flight. 🚀 SpaceX Extreme Negative News Reversal Rally The previous day, the stock plummeted over 13%, compounded by a trillion-level lock-up release, with the market unanimously bearish. However, on the day of the release, it surged over 6% against the trend, with market cap returning above 1.5 trillion and trading volume hitting a one-and-a-half-month high. Core logic behind the reversal: - Negative news was priced in early: The previous day’s plunge fully digested the lock-up pressure, releasing selling pressure in advance - Shorts forced to cover: High short positions were wrong-footed, passive buying pushed the stock price up - Strong institutional support: Multiple investment banks raised target prices and maintained buy ratings - Retail investors eagerly bottom-fished: Opening buy volume far exceeded daily averages Note: This is only the first round of lock-up releases; there will be large-scale releases at the end of this year and next year, so the rally is only a short-term sentiment recovery. Additionally, SpaceX’s joint $16.8 billion Texas superchip factory with Tesla is underway, providing ongoing hardware sector catalysts. 📰 Overnight Key News Highlights - Hormuz Strait agreement not reached; U.S. continues negotiations, supporting oil prices sentimentally - U.S. plans to delay polysilicon tariffs, setting a transition period, benefiting the domestic photovoltaic import supply chain - High-end memory shortage; Nvidia plans to reduce new chip memory specifications - OpenAI opens unlimited free text chat for users, countersues Apple for infringement claims - U.S. introduces new policies cracking down on birth tourism and tightening birthright citizenship, with legal battles expected - World’s first mRNA flu vaccine approved, accelerating sector commercialization - Trump frequently liaises with new Fed chair; upcoming monetary policy is worth watching In summary, the core of the overnight market was a trade on expectation gaps. The widely bearish negative news materialized but failed to trigger a sell-off, even sparking a reversal rally. Continue to closely monitor the tech sector and the follow-up performance of stocks with lock-up releases. $SPCX $SKHY $WDC

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