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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Influential Creator
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果然周末还是难过啊,国际市场的休市阶段就是双方关键博弈点,不过相比此前周末的高强对军事冲突以及外交施压,目前来看还算是乐观不少 下周,最为美伊局势将会迎来关键节点了,目前这个局势双方要么走向谈判桌,要么回归军事冲突,长期静默的可能性不大 对于目前的局势,我依旧是保持乐观,今天伊朗总统与伊朗外长打了一波外交配合 伊朗总统,以战略目标为核心目的表示对谈判的乐观与积极态度,表示谈判窗口存在,但是有更多的要求 而伊朗外长则以相对强硬口味来展现回归谈判的条件与程序 双方一软一强,明显是外交上的配合对美国施压与斡旋政策,而此时的伊朗最高领袖近期对美伊事态保持沉默,是在等待最后的盖棺定论 存在博弈就存在回归谈判的可能性,且我认为目前概率并不低,而能源市场虽然出现反弹,不过目前表现更像是对不确定性的紧张,而并非局势恶化后的强势反弹!#霍尔木兹谈判取得进展,油价风险降温了吗?
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
After I assigned the task to GPT, I did receive the latest updates, but I was delayed from checking them immediately due to other matters. Now that I have reviewed the information prompts and interpretations, my final conclusion is still very positive. However, AI remains too rational. From my perspective, this matter looks more like Iran preparing the political groundwork for confirming the Strait agreement—first demonstrating a tough stance in negotiations, then smoothly finalizing the agreement to facilitate the US and Iran returning to the negotiating table. Why do I think this is a form of softening? Because compared to the previous Iranian parliament attempt to restrict passage of ships from the US and other hostile countries through the Strait and to establish stricter Strait rules, this statement, while still tough in tone, clearly weakens the rules. Therefore, my subjective conclusion is that Iran is preparing to confirm the Strait agreement. Although energy prices have rebounded somewhat in the short term, they have not yet returned to an upward trend! #非农意外转负,CPI成加息关键

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