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Mulight沐光
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所有人都在聊OpenAI和Anthropic自研芯片要干翻英伟达,但真正躺赚的另有其人。
Broadcom。这家公司给Google、Meta、Anthropic、OpenAI全部做定制AI芯片。你没看错,所有喊要摆脱英伟达的大模型公司,定制芯片设计全是找Broadcom。
8月5号Anthropic官宣组建自研芯片团队,同一天Axios发了一篇标题很直白的文章:为什么英伟达在资助自己的竞争对手。因为Broadcom给OpenAI做定制芯片的项目也在加速,同时还在扩展Anthropic的AI算力合作。
数字很直观:Broadcom 25倍前瞻市盈率,在万亿市值科技股里几乎是最便宜的。英伟达接近40倍,AMD超过30倍。
卖铲子的人永远比淘金的人先赚到钱。OpenAI烧了几十亿做Jalapeño推理芯片,Meta的定制芯片9月量产,Anthropic刚挖了OpenAI的芯片工程师——所有人都在进场,Broadcom是所有人共同的铲子供应商。
Reviewing the AMD earnings call transcript, I found Lisa Su was asked an unavoidable question—Elon Musk just spent tens of billions buying NVIDIA GPUs to build the world's largest training cluster, so why not choose AMD?
Her answer was very restrained: AMD's market share on the inference side is growing rapidly, and customer choice depends on the specific workload.
To translate: the top-tier large orders for training clusters currently still belong to NVIDIA.
But AMD's earnings data is not bad. Q2 revenue was $11.5 billion, up 50% year-over-year. The data center business doubled outright. Looking at these numbers alone, it doesn't seem like a company whose stock dropped nearly 10% that day.
The problem lies in the AI revenue guidance. The market doesn't want "fast growth," it wants "growth fast enough to challenge NVIDIA." AMD delivered growth but not disruption.
This gap reflects a solidifying pattern: the AI chip market is splitting into two tiers. The first tier is ultra-large-scale training clusters with tens of thousands of cards—NVIDIA currently has no rivals here. The biggest buyers like Musk, OpenAI, and Anthropic default to NVIDIA. The second tier is inference deployment and enterprise AI—AMD is rapidly gaining share here, with MI300 series shipments ramping up.
Lisa Su revealed a key piece of information on the call: AMD's AI customer count has tripled year-over-year. This shows it's not that no one is buying, but that the scale of buyers hasn't reached Musk's level yet.
Next to watch is whether AMD's AI revenue in Q3 can step up again quarter-over-quarter. If it can, the current pullback is a good observation window. If growth slows, the market's valuation framework for the "AI number two" may be compressed further.
The above does not constitute investment advice; chip stocks are volatile, so please base your judgments on your own research.
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