"Sign tomorrow" — but "tomorrow" has been said for four days
On August 4, U.S. officials said: "An agreement may be reached tomorrow."
On August 5, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said: the agreement is "close to finalization."
On August 6, Trump said: the agreement "cannot yet be said to be officially reached," but the Strait is "somewhat open."
On August 7, U.S. officials again said: "An agreement is expected soon."
On August 8 — still "expected soon."
Four days have passed. "Tomorrow" hasn't come yet.
This "soon" itself is the biggest risk in the market.
Do you think all parties are talking about the same thing?
Let's look at the list of disagreements:
Who gets the transit fees?
Iran: The collected service fees are to be split evenly between Iran and Oman
Trump: "If fees are to be collected, we should collect them"
Who controls it?
Iran: Exercise control over ships heading to the Gulf, intervene if necessary
U.S.: No Iranian approval needed
Precondition for lifting sanctions?
Iran: The U.S. must first lift the maritime blockade on Iran
U.S.: Whether to lift depends on Iran fulfilling its commitments
Who signs?
Iran: The agreement "is limited to Iran and Oman only, absolutely no foreign interference accepted"
Trump: "The U.S. is participating in related negotiations"
You tell me this is "close to agreement"?
More interestingly — on Thursday, the U.S. Central Command said that since resuming the blockade on Iran, 49 commercial ships have been rerouted.
Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said three of its ships were attacked this week while passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Negotiating on one side, attacking on the other.
Iran's parliament is still making statements: "No concessions have been made in the negotiations."
Translated into plain language: I haven't given anything up, so why do you think the agreement is close?
The market has already given the answer.
WTI closed lower this week, hovering between $76-$78. Brent closed above $83 but has fallen for three consecutive weeks.
Speculative net long positions have both decreased — smart money is retreating.
What about BTC?
In the week ending August 8, despite continued inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and easing geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin fluctuated between $63,000 and $65,000 without forming a clear direction.
The Coinbase premium, an indicator measuring U.S. institutional demand, has been negative for about 80 days.
The market is expressing one thing through sideways movement: I don't believe it.
To be blunt:
Geopolitical "soon" equals "high uncertainty" in the trading world.
Every "agreement close to being reached" news pushes BTC up; every "details disagreement exposed" can trigger a pullback.
And every bullish candle you see now may be a news-driven "buy the rumor."
The moment the agreement is finalized — if it really happens — may instead be a "sell the fact."
So the question now is simple:
Do you think this agreement will be signed this week?
If your answer is "yes" — then current oil prices and BTC may not be fully priced in yet.
If your answer is "no" — then this downtrend is not over, and oil prices may add the risk premium back at any time.
And BTC will ride another roller coaster.
$BTC $BZ $CL #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展，油价风险降温了吗？
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