Probability drops from 70% to 14%: CLARITY delays three shockwaves for crypto assets
Is your BTC still stagnant today?
Hovering just above 65,000, neither rising nor falling. ETF inflows hit a historic low—only $205 million net inflow in July.
Do you know what the market is waiting for?
It’s waiting for something that should have already happened.
In early May, the probability of the "CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026" on Polymarket was over 70%.
By the end of June, it was still 48%.
A week ago, 30%.
And now?
14%.
In three months, from a sure thing to almost no chance.
Senate Majority Leader Schumer confirmed late Thursday: the CLARITY Act will not be voted on before the August recess, postponed until the session resumes on September 14.
North Carolina Republican Senator Tillis said: "With the vote delayed until September, the probability of the bill passing has likely dropped by 50%."
50%.
Why the delay? Two reasons.
First, Democrats want to amend the "conflict of interest clause."
They demand restrictions on federal officials holding crypto assets, especially those linked to the Trump family’s crypto businesses.
Second, stablecoin and banking provisions are stuck.
Some lawmakers worry the current clauses will impact small banks’ business space.
In short: the two parties are blocking each other, and the crypto industry has become a hostage.
What does the delay mean for the market?
Three shockwaves, each worse than the last.
First wave: regulatory uncertainty premium continues.
From the September 14 session to year-end, there are just over three months left for legislation. If no consensus is reached in September—likely delayed until 2027.
Who will regulate crypto, SEC or CFTC? Still unresolved.
Uncertainty means institutions dare not enter aggressively.
Second wave: institutional entry rhythm disrupted.
Did you know? JPMorgan has already explored tokenized ETF holdings through DTCC. Over 50 institutions including BlackRock and Goldman Sachs are connected to the same infrastructure for tokenizing stocks and government bonds.
The on-chain infrastructure for traditional finance is already laid out.
But they don’t dare to accelerate.
Why? Without clear regulation, who dares to go all in?
Bullish executive Randi Abernethy told Congress the hard truth: once traditional financial institutions enter the on-chain market, regulation is no longer just an "internal crypto industry issue."
In plain terms: Wall Street wants in, but without Washington’s approval, they won’t move.
Third wave: the U.S. may miss the opportunity again.
The Crypto Innovation Committee warned: if the U.S. fails to establish clear regulatory frameworks promptly, it will continue to drive businesses and innovation overseas.
This is not a scare tactic.
Singapore, Hong Kong, and the EU are all racing to build crypto regulatory frameworks. The U.S.? The bill is pushed from 2025 to 2026, then from summer to fall, and if fall fails, then 2027.
Others are building highways; the U.S. is still debating whether to build.
The market has already told you with a 14% probability: don’t expect it this year.
But this is not a "crash-level" negative.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan is right: the delay won’t stop the crypto industry’s long-term growth momentum.
This is a continuous downward pressure on valuation ceilings—not a sudden cut, but a stone slowly pressing down on you.
Coinbase and Circle face short-term pressure, but the long-term logic remains unchanged.
BTC/ETH? They won’t crash, but they won’t soar either.
Don’t bet on the September session passing it.
Don’t bet it will never pass.
During the regulatory vacuum, the big companies that survive will grow bigger. Small projects? Good luck to them.
$BTC$ETH$SOL#CLARITY表决推迟至9月，监管窗口后移
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