Spot gold surged 2.3% on Friday to $4336/oz, briefly breaking above $4350 during the session, marking a seven-week high since June 17. COMEX gold futures stood at $4401.3/oz.
The weekly gain exceeded 7%, the best single-week performance since January 2026.
Gold jewelry prices rose by 30 yuan overnight, returning to 1300 yuan.
And what about Bitcoin?
$64,927. Over the week, it remained sideways around $64,000.
Gold soared, BTC stayed flat.
First, let's look at why gold rose.
The primary driver: the US labor market collapsed.
Data released by the US Department of Labor on August 7 showed nonfarm payrolls in July decreased by 23,000 month-over-month.
What was the market expectation? An increase of 80,000.
A shortfall of 103,000.
Even worse, May and June data were revised down by a combined 103,000.
Three consecutive months of weakening employment momentum. Local government education cut 50,000 jobs, retail lost 19,000, and finance shed 14,000.
This is not just cooling down; it's a freefall.
As a result, the US dollar index fell intraday to 99.40, hitting a nearly two-month low. CME data showed the probability of a September rate hike dropped sharply from 55% to 40%.
Lower rate hike expectations = weaker dollar = gold benefits.
The logic chain is very clear.
But—if it were just rate cut expectations, could gold rise 7% in a week?
Not enough.
Dahe Caifang has a particularly poignant saying:
"The market is no longer simply trading interest rates; it is trading 'trust.'"
What does that mean?
Global central banks are frantically buying gold. Huaan, Asia's largest gold ETF, has seen net inflows exceeding 6 billion yuan for sixteen consecutive days. Global gold ETF holdings have increased by 24 tons since July 20.
Central banks are hoarding gold, not betting on rate cuts, but betting on growing cracks in the fiat currency credit system.
$BTC$ETH $XAU #黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？
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