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Mulight沐光
Mulight沐光
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翻阅AMD财报电话会记录,发现Lisa Su被问了一个绕不开的问题——马斯克刚砸了几百亿美元买英伟达GPU建全球最大训练集群,为什么不选AMD? 她的回答很克制:AMD在推理端的市场份额在快速增长,客户选择取决于具体工作负载。 翻译一下:训练集群的顶级大单,目前确实还是英伟达的。 但AMD的财报数据并不差。Q2营收115亿美元,同比涨了50%。数据中心业务直接翻倍。单独看这些数字,怎么都不像一家股价当天跌了将近10%的公司。 问题出在AI收入指引上。市场要的不是"增长很快",要的是"增长快到能挑战英伟达"。AMD给出了增长,没给出颠覆。 这个落差反映了一个正在固化的格局:AI芯片市场正在分成两个层级。第一层是万卡以上超大规模训练集群——这层英伟达暂时没有对手。马斯克、OpenAI、Anthropic这些最大的买家,默认选英伟达。第二层是推理部署和企业级AI——这层AMD在快速吃掉份额,MI300系列出货量在爬坡。 Lisa Su在电话会上透露了一个关键信息:AMD的AI客户数量同比翻了三倍。说明不是没人买,是买的客户体量还没到马斯克那个级别。 接下来要看的是AMD三季度AI收入能不能环比再上一个台阶。如果能,现在的回调就是一个不错的观察窗口。如果增速放缓,那市场对"AI老二"的估值框架可能还要再往下压缩一轮。 以上不构成投资建议,芯片股波动大,判断请基于自己的研究。
Mulight沐光
Mulight沐光
Changxin's stock price rose 466% on its first day of listing, and WeChat Moments were full of screenshots. At the same time, SK Hynix released its Q2 financial report—revenue hit a record high, and they said DRAM supply tightness will continue until 2028. Putting these two things together is interesting. On one side, the banner of China's memory chips has finally gone public, securing 295 billion RMB in ammunition. On the other side, the Koreans are telling you: sorry, DRAM will still be insufficient for the next three years. CXMT currently accounts for about 5% of global DRAM capacity, mainly producing DDR4 and LPDDR4. But the market is moving towards DDR5 and HBM3E—these two categories have gross margins two to three times that of DDR4. SK Hynix's Q2 HBM revenue increased nearly 200% year-over-year, and Micron has just doubled its HBM capacity plans. CXMT's 295 billion will mainly be invested in advanced process technology and HBM production lines. But memory chips are not something you can catch up on just by having money—equipment embargoes, talent shortages, and yield ramp-up, every hurdle is tough. In the short term, the stock price has a concept premium; in the mid to long term, it depends on whether HBM can be shipped. The real validation point is in 2027—whether it can enter Nvidia's supply chain. Next, watch CXMT's R&D expenditure ratio and capital expenditure direction in the next financial report. SK Hynix's supply tightness warning is both a ceiling and a floor for CXMT—if it can't catch up, it will be locked in the low end; if it catches up, it will be the world's fourth largest player.

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