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A new week begins, and Trump's "mouth" is back to work! In recent months, Trump has been making tough statements on Fridays, then going silent, and on weekend nights dropping another TACO move, a very clear rhythm. The core purpose is to apply increasingly strong military and diplomatic pressure to force Iran and regional mediators to start compromising and negotiating, thereby achieving his own diplomatic and negotiation goals. The tactic is old, clichéd, and simple, but given the current US military strength and Trump's poor "reputation," no one dares to bet on whether he will take action, so it still has an effect. It's like in a society ruled by law: if a normal person holds a knife, you might not fear being harmed, but if someone tells you this person is a "madman," probably everyone would keep their distance. Becoming a mad dog or madman might not be a bad thing for Trump. Of course, the space for using this effective tactic is limited. Two weeks ago, he declared the largest-scale strike; last week, he increased the description of the attack scale. What about this week? If Iran remains stubborn this week, Trump's options are few and he might have to force a large-scale attack on Iran? However, the US-Iran situation is not without progress. Although Iran does not want to admit it, facing military intimidation, the Iran-Oman Strait co-management agreement has still made some breakthroughs. Next, it depends on the actual version. If this version can be jointly recognized by Iran and the US, the US and Iran will return to the negotiating table! For risk markets, the recent negative impact brought by US-Iran geopolitics has already weakened a lot. Similarly, how much positive effect will the US and Iran returning to the negotiating table bring? Obviously, not much. The most sensitive remains the international crude oil price and US oil. US oil will first look to reach 75; if it stabilizes below 75, then 65 prices can be expected! But this process will take time! #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐