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After Microsoft released its earnings report, the stock price rose nearly 9% in after-hours trading. Azure's growth rate accelerated from 40% to 43%. Everyone was celebrating. But those who looked closely at the earnings report felt a chill down their spine. Microsoft extended the depreciation period for data centers from 15 years directly to 25 years. Then, it conveniently lowered the 2026 capital expenditure guidance from $190 billion to $175 billion. CFO Amy Hood came out to reassure: don't worry, it's not a cut in AI investment, it's an accounting change. The actual investment hasn't decreased at all. The reported number is $15 billion less out of thin air. Here’s the problem— The chip industry has a hard rule: one generation every 18 months. The GPU you buy today will be electronic waste in 3 years. In 5 years, even the drivers won’t be maintained. Microsoft says their data centers can be used for 25 years. What does 25 years mean? In 2001, the first-generation Xbox was released. In 2026, are you telling me those servers from back then can still run AI? Economist David Woo slammed the table: this is not real economic improvement, it’s accounting treatment to lower depreciation. The AI investment logic continues to deteriorate, and the AI bubble has officially burst. The "big short" Michael Burry is even harsher—he estimates that from 2026 to 2028, tech giants will inflate $176 billion in reported profits by extending depreciation periods. Consider this logic: On the surface—profits grow, capital expenditure "decreases," perfect. In reality—chips are obsolete in 3 years, but depreciation is spread over 25 years. The depreciation expense reduced each year turns entirely into reported profit. When these assets are finally retired, a one-time impairment will blow up the earnings report. This is not accounting treatment; it’s planting a bomb 25 years in the future. Some might say: Microsoft Azure revenue has surpassed $100 billion, Copilot has over 30 million paying users, AI monetization is accelerating, why do you say it’s a bubble? I tell you— Revenue growth doesn’t mean the depreciation logic is sound. Moody’s has already raised the 2026 capital expenditure forecast for the six largest hyperscale cloud providers to $785 billion. Morgan Stanley is even more aggressive at $795 billion. The entire industry is burning money to build data centers. But how will the money spent be recouped? The longer the depreciation period, the longer the payback verification is delayed. Microsoft is bringing forward profits that belong 25 years from now into today’s financial statements. Wait 25 years? The AI industry’s era is 18 months. The most painful part is— The stock price rises, retail investors rush in to take the baton. They think Microsoft’s AI investment is "slowing down," and profits are "growing." In reality, nothing has changed—the investment hasn’t decreased, the profits are just calculated. What they are buying is not the future of AI, but the premium of accounting magic. $MSFT $GOOGL $META #折旧年限延至25年，微软资本开支指引下调