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Four earnings releases this Thursday, the last card is the most critical Brothers, this week’s four earnings reports from the tech and crypto sectors are all crucial. After market close on August 3: Palantir (PLTR) Market expects revenue of $1.81 billion, an 80% year-over-year surge; adjusted EPS expected at $0.35, up 118% from $0.16 last year. But the stock price has already dropped about 30% since the start of the year. Options market prices in a ±9.6% price swing on earnings night. How strong is AI enterprise demand? We’ll find out tonight. After market close on August 4: AMD + SpaceX (double feature) AMD: Market expects revenue of $11.34 billion, up about 48% year-over-year; adjusted EPS expected at $1.61, more than triple last year’s $0.48. Options market prices in a ±10% weekly volatility. Among 9 analysts, 7 have buy ratings with an average target price of $582. Is there still a future for compute chips? Tomorrow will tell. SpaceX (SPCX): First earnings report since going public. Market expects revenue of $6.93 billion; EBIT loss about $1.55 billion, adjusted loss per share $0.26. Even more intense—on the day after earnings (August 6), insiders can sell up to 20% of restricted shares, up to 911 million shares. The tradable float will double from 5% to 12%. Short interest is as high as $24.6 billion. Can Musk’s aura withstand this wave? Before market open on August 5: Circle (CRCL)—the grand finale Market expects revenue around $717 million, only a 3.3% sequential increase; EPS expected at $0.164, a 21.9% sequential decline. USDC circulation slightly dropped from $77 billion in Q1 to about $73 billion. But don’t forget one thing—Circle just obtained the OCC national trust bank license. This is the first stablecoin company to report earnings with a banking license. Why do I put Circle first? Because the first three reports have already set the stage for crypto: Coinbase revenue down about 18.5% year-over-year, Robinhood crypto revenue down 40%, Tether net profit $1.5 billion. Stablecoins are the cornerstone of liquidity in the crypto market. Circle’s guidance will directly impact DeFi expectations, trading platform confidence, and even overall market liquidity pricing. And right now, the entire market sentiment is in the “extreme fear” zone. Bitcoin has dropped nearly half from its $126,000 high at the start of the year. Stablecoin supply has decreased by $15 billion since mid-May—the largest drop since the 2022 Terra crash. Here’s the question: How will Circle’s earnings report go? Optimists say: The banking license is a nuclear weapon. OCC directly regulates reserve management, raising compliance barriers to the max. USDC accounted for about 70% of adjusted stablecoin trading volume in the first half. This is a winner-takes-all after regulatory arbitrage ends. Pessimists say: USDC circulation is falling, interest rates are dropping, and the crypto market is bearish. Interest income accounts for 95% of Circle’s revenue, so rate cuts directly slash profits. Also, the stock price has already given back over 75% from its IPO high—the market has long priced in pessimism. Both sides have valid points. But when the earnings come out, only one direction will be right. 🗳️ Poll: Which one are you most concerned about? A. Palantir — How strong is AI enterprise demand? B. AMD — Can compute chips still compete? C. SpaceX — Can Musk’s aura withstand $24.6 billion in short bets? D. Circle — Is the last stablecoin card a trump or a dud? My own ranking: D > B > A > C The reason is simple—stablecoins are the table legs of the entire crypto table. Whether the table wobbles depends on the stability of the legs. What about you? Post your ranking in the comments👇 A harsh truth: Tech stock earnings look at “can it still rise next quarter.” Circle’s earnings look at “does this industry still have liquidity.” The former decides whether you make money. The latter decides whether this market stays alive. Set your alarm before market open Thursday. $BTC $AMD $SPCX #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴