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In the past 24 hours, the news has been a complete mess—— Some say Trump has authorized the US military to launch "the most intense bombing to date" on Iran's energy infrastructure, with operations possibly continuing throughout the weekend, targeting power plants and refineries. Others say Trump has called it off again, agreeing to cancel the strike. The US Embassy in Jerusalem issued a security alert on August 1, and multiple embassies have urged US citizens to consider leaving or prepare for evacuation. Evacuation alerts never come without reason. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard responded: striking infrastructure is a "mad act," and they have formulated a comprehensive counterattack plan, including targeting key Israeli facilities and US energy infrastructure in the Middle East. Verbal threats → evacuation alerts → strike preparations. This is not just talk; the script has reached the third act. International oil prices have already risen over 20% in July, marking the strongest monthly gain since March. Brent crude fell from $96.78 last week to around $90—but that was based on the expectation of "no strike." What if the strike really happens tonight? Don’t guess the price movement. Let’s simulate three scenarios, and you can compare them with your own positions to judge. Scenario 1: Limited strike—symbolic slap The US military precisely hits 1-2 Iranian energy facilities, on a controllable scale, then stops. Oil prices spike in pulses, then fall back. BTC drops first—risk aversion dominates, bulls stampede to exit. Then what? Safe-haven funds start flowing in, activating the "digital gold" narrative. The result: first a drop then a pullback, with volatility sharply increasing. Those who bet wrong get hit on both sides. Scenario 2: Sustained strike—full escalation Multiple rounds of bombing, Iran fulfills its counterattack promise—missiles target key Israeli facilities and US energy infrastructure in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz is disturbed or even effectively blocked. Oil prices surge past $100. Global stagflation expectations rise—inflation uncontrollable, economy dragged down. How does BTC perform then? It outperforms most assets. Why? Because when fiat currency credit is eroded by inflation, and traditional financial assets are crushed by geopolitical risks, Bitcoin’s "censorship resistance" and "independence from any country" attributes get repriced. This is not bullishness; it’s about who’s worse off. Scenario 3: Diplomatic cooling—last-minute brake A ceasefire agreement is reached at the last moment before the strike, or Trump really cancels the strike as some reports say. Oil prices plummet, giving back all gains. BTC rebounds with risk assets. But note—the macro uncertainty decreases, meaning the "risk premium" fades. There is a rebound, but the part of the premium driven by "fear" disappears. What do these three scenarios have in common? Volatility will soar. Whether there is a strike or not, and however it happens, price swings are certain. The only uncertainty is direction. So at this point, selling options (shorting volatility) is more profitable than betting on direction. Guessing price moves is gambling; selling volatility is collecting rent—you profit as volatility rises no matter which way the market moves. The core of trading geopolitical events is not guessing if a strike will happen. It’s about thinking clearly whether your position can withstand the strike. Here are three scripts. Match yourself accordingly. $BTC $BZ $CL #美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，使馆发撤离预警