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Bloodbath on the Eve? Oil Prices Surge 20% This Month as PCE Turns Negative, Fed Losing Its "Rate Cut Excuse"! On July 31 intraday, WTI crude futures once dropped over 3% to $80.12, Brent fell nearly 3% to $84.4. But for the whole month—WTI rose about 20%, Brent even broke above $90. Throughout July, the US and Iran exchanged attacks in Jordan. Mid-July, Iran attacked a US military base, killing 2 US soldiers; on July 29, Iranian ballistic missiles struck Jordan again, prompting US retaliatory airstrikes. Oil prices soared alongside the missiles. Within a month, tensions eased and escalated twice. On the very day oil prices soared, the US released June PCE data—month-on-month down 0.1%, the first monthly decline in four years. Annualized PCE at 3.7%, core PCE at 3.3%. On one side, oil prices rose 20% this month; on the other, inflation indicators turned negative for the first time in four years. What is this called? Stagflation ghost. Breaking down, this logic chain is deadly: First link: Oil prices are the engine of inflation. Brent surged from $71 to above $90, energy costs cascade through the industrial chain. Strait of Hormuz shipping volume dropped to zero—not a short-term pulse but a structural supply shock. Second link: Inflation expectations reversed, directly rewriting interest rate paths. Early July, market saw only 18% chance of a September rate hike; by July 20, it soared to 61.4%. CME FedWatch latest shows September hike probability still as high as 65.2%. Third link: On July 30, the Fed announced rates held at 3.5%-3.75%—but inside it exploded. Three voting members dissented against a hike, first time since 2016. Fourth link: Rate hike expectations push up real dollar rates, which anchor risk asset pricing. Higher rates = higher discount rates on future cash flows = valuation multiples contract. This combo punch hits—US stocks, AI stocks, cryptocurrencies, none escape. In plain terms: The market has been trading one story for the past six months—"Inflation falls → Fed cuts rates → liquidity released → BTC takes off." Oil breaking $90 removes the foundation of this story. The market now trades another story—"Oil prices rise → inflation rebounds → rate hikes → liquidity tightens → risk assets under pressure." The BTC you hold is priced under a changed logic. Recently BTC has been oscillating near $64,000. US stocks rebounded sharply in a deep V, Dow up 1.19%, Nasdaq surged 2.78%. Why? US stocks trade the "GDP growth slows → Fed dares not hike" soft landing narrative. But what is the crypto market trading? Expectations of liquidity tightening. Same macro data, two markets, two interpretations. Who’s right or wrong? Look at oil prices. If WTI can’t hold $81 (intraday broke below $80 on July 31), the market trades a "demand collapse" recession logic. Failing to hold $81 risks a systemic market correction. Holding above $81 means the worst is over. To put it bluntly: Don’t ask what war means for crypto. Just remember— Every Middle East flare-up is a signal flare for whales hedging by shorting the market. $BTC $BZ $CL #美伊报复循环加速，油价月内累涨20%