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This morning, media reports stated that the US military completed strikes against Iran. According to the three counterattack plans I mentioned yesterday—upper, middle, and lower levels—based on currently available open-source information, this strike against Iran is relatively neutral. 1. This strike still focused on military facilities: the Revolutionary Guard command center, missile facilities, drone bases, coastal defense systems, and maritime defense forces, primarily aiming to weaken military capabilities. 2. Specific strike target locations: a. Bushehr, a southern Iranian city and an important military node in the Persian Gulf, housing key Revolutionary Guard military facilities. b. Abu Musa Island, an important node controlled by Iran at the southern entrance of the Strait of Hormuz. c. Kish Island, a Persian Gulf island and tourist destination, also hosting radar, logistics, and other critical military facilities. d. Ahvaz, an important logistics hub in southwestern Iran. 3. The attack lasted 2 hours, targeting dozens of sites. It was not continuous bombing but precise, targeted strikes. 4. So far, Iran has reported 3 deaths only, with no clear military response. Overall, evaluating this strike, the US attack on Iran focused on military facilities and related expectations, using pinpoint strikes and maintaining a certain level of restraint without expanding to civilian infrastructure. The attack concentrated on southern Iran to weaken military intervention in the Strait, without hitting major Iranian cities. This suggests that Trump still maintains some room for negotiation. In summary, the current US counterattack is neutral and has the option to lean toward optimism. In the next 24 hours, three aspects need attention: 1. Whether Iran will retaliate against the US. 2. Whether new military actions occur in the Strait of Hormuz, including Revolutionary Guard activities or harassment of oil tankers. 3. Whether Trump signals a resumption of negotiations. If options 1 or 2 occur, it means the US-Iran friction risks escalation, causing crude oil prices to rise. If option 3 occurs, it signals an optimistic de-escalation between the US and Iran, causing crude oil prices to fall. Of course, if all parties remain silent with no military friction or escalation, it is also a potential positive sign, indicating behind-the-scenes negotiation and maneuvering! #美军空袭伊朗，油价冲高回落