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Global Macro Guidance for July 27 - August 2: De-escalation of US-Iran tensions, US stock earnings as the main theme, economy and AI profits become two key validation chains! This Week's Theme: The US-Iran situation enters a turning and easing period, tension de-escalates, conventional games enter conventional play. AI enters the "earnings redemption week," the Federal Reserve enters a silent period, rate cut data will determine the pace of rate cuts, and global liquidity enters a fundamental trading mode! 1. The only main theme this week: US stock Q2 earnings, is AI really worth this valuation! Focus on earnings this week: Microsoft, META, Apple, Amazon, Qualcomm, SK Hynix, and Samsung earnings reports will be released, representing key sectors of the AI industry chain including cloud computing, AI applications, consumer electronics, semiconductor design, storage, and wafer manufacturing. This will be the most critical week of the Q2 earnings season. These companies basically represent half of the AI industry chain, and their earnings reports will trigger a key valuation adjustment for the entire AI ecosystem. In the past six months, the market traded on AI's future; now, the market trades on AI profits. This is the biggest change in the AI ecosystem for Q2. At the same time, corporate earnings reports are an important risk market validation chain this week and a core of fundamental trading. Earnings release schedule: Thursday morning: SK Hynix earnings, before the Korean market opens Thursday early morning: Microsoft, Meta, after US market close Friday morning: Samsung Electronics, before Korean market opens Friday early morning: Apple, Amazon, Qualcomm, after US market close, Coinbase 2. Two validations: economic data to verify the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and current rate environment; earnings + economic growth to verify corporate investment confidence and AI return rate. 1. Macro data gradually validates AI valuation and interest rate environment On Wednesday, July 29, the US second-quarter GDP preliminary estimate will show economic resilience, affecting subsequent interest rates and whether the current economy can validate AI valuation. High GDP growth may not benefit US stocks but could suppress rate cut space. The worst combination is strong GDP and high PCE with average earnings guidance, which will cause confidence in the US stock AI sector to decline. Early morning July 30: Federal Reserve rate decision and Chair Powell's press conference. Rates are likely to remain unchanged. Focus on whether Powell's press conference and meeting minutes re-emphasize inflation risks, clarify that future policy has no preset path, or reserve space for a September rate hike or prolonged high rates. Evening July 30: June PCE and core PCE. June CPI core inflation declined, easing market inflation concerns. However, recent energy price rebounds make it critical to see if June PCE further strengthens confidence in core inflation decline. If core PCE inflation remains sticky, short-term inflation and future inflation expectations concerns will increase, which is unfavorable for rate cuts and suppresses risk markets. Morning July 31: Bank of Japan rate decision. The yen has been frequently volatile recently. Whether the BOJ will further raise rates will determine yen movement, US-Japan interest rate differentials, and financial market liquidity. 2. Energy prices + PCE inflation data + Fed stance + US Treasury yields + tech stock valuations form this week's macro pricing logic. GDP + PCE validate rate expectations; GDP and earnings validate whether US economic resilience can support AI market valuations. 3. Macro, geopolitical, and central bank transmission chain: 1. Energy affects inflation, which affects central banks. Geopolitical situations determine oil prices, oil prices guide inflation expectations, and inflation expectations change the rate adjustment attitudes of the US and global central banks. 2. This week, US-Iran tensions ease and de-escalate, so it is no longer the main theme. However, energy price fluctuations still impact important market expectations. Continued oil price rises or falls this week will directly affect rate market dynamic expectations. Summary of this chapter: After this week, we want to get three validation answers: a. Do inflation and growth data strengthen or weaken high rate expectations? b. Does tech corporate profit growth outpace capital expenditure growth? c. Which dominates: rate pressure or profit improvement? This week is a complex dual pricing week of policy and AI earnings fundamentals, especially for US stocks. Macro determines the ceiling, earnings determine the profit floor, and the industry chain determines structural differentiation. Therefore, in this complex environment, global assets such as US Treasuries sensitive to rates, gold and the US dollar, US stocks sensitive to earnings, and #Bitcoin sensitive to both rates and risk appetite will face a high volatility risk environment. Personal advice: observe more and validate more this week. Try not to make key decisions before all data validations are complete! #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 PS: Further observations on this week's corporate earnings will be added later! Since US stocks have entered a structural differentiation validation phase, earnings reports should not only be judged by whether they meet overall expectations. For the AI industry chain, one earnings report determines the overall volatility of upstream and downstream companies!