Woke up this morning and checked the trading records. $SNDK made three short trades in the early morning. Short at 1566, closed at 1549, 16U profit. Short at 1561, closed at 1547, 12.7U profit. Short at 1564, closed at 1536, 25.8U profit. Total profit from the three trades is 54U. Yesterday I lost 37U on this stock, but today I recovered both principal and profit. SNDK pushed from 1254 all the way up to 1538, with a high touching 1579. The stronger it got, the more I wanted to short it, but I stopped for today. $ETH long position is still held, entered at 1882, at 1887 now, floating profit of 29U, no action taken. Held it for almost a day, the lowest it went was 1862, no stop loss triggered. It’s hovering around 1887, neither rising nor falling, just consolidating. $EDEN surged from 0.044 to 0.084 today, doubled. Volume increased with the rally, OI is also rising, short-term bias is strong. With this pattern, chasing longs risks being the bag holder; will wait for the hourly chart to weaken before looking for a short entry. Placed an order in the 0.085-0.088 range to see if there’s an opportunity. SNDK is done for today, ETH is still grinding, EDEN is waiting. Three stocks, three different states. Orders are placed, the rest is up to the market.

$ETH long position is still held. Entered at 1882.2, 5 ETH, 100x leverage. After opening the position, it dropped to a low of 1874, still some distance from the stop loss, no need to panic at all. Now it bounced back to 1894, floating profit of 63U, still holding, let's see how far it can go. $SNDK is a different story. Shorted at 1397.59, 2 coins, 50x leverage. After entering, it kept pushing up, a bit too strong. Held for 13 minutes, took a loss of 37U and exited, after closing the position it still kept rising. One position is waiting for direction, the other has accepted the loss and exited. Continuing to hold ETH, will look for an entry point for SNDK again. That's it for tonight.

Just confirmed $ETH, and the price started to drop. Entered long at 1882.2, 5 ETH, 100x leverage, margin 294U. The price was still hovering around 1880 when I entered, but the next second it started to go down. The highest it reached was 1927, which was before I entered. After I opened the position, it never went back up. Forced liquidation at 1831.63, only 48 dollars away from 1880. A 2.6% drop, a normal pullback could easily wipe me out. $BTC is also dragging today. Hovering around 63600, MACD still below the zero line. DIFF -251.8, DEA -239.8, histogram -24, all negative. It has been steadily declining from the high of 64466, the rebound can’t even reach 64000. If BTC can’t rise, who dares to move altcoins. $SNDK isn’t doing well either. Dropped from 1388 to 1356, -1.56%, softened right after the spike. MACD golden cross is still widening, DIFF 30.51, DEA 22.13, histogram 16.75, looks like it wants to keep going up. But the price didn’t follow, and volume shrank. ETH is falling, BTC is sideways, SNDK is pulling back. All three are dragging. Stop loss set at 1830, will exit if it hits, otherwise hold. Just opened the position, already floating at a loss. This script, I feel like I’ve seen it somewhere before.

$MUBARAK this trade Falling to now, instead of panicking Long opened at 0.0205 3x leverage, margin 179U Current price 0.0178, unrealized loss 79U After sliding down from 0.024 It’s been hovering between 0.017 and 0.019 Like a car stuck in mud Pressing the gas is spinning wheels Not pressing it sinks further This kind of sideways movement without rebound Is more draining than a big drop Not pain, but endurance Previous low 0.0169 If broken, it’s a deep water zone with no support Stop loss set at 0.0170 Exit if reached, accept 100U loss From profit to unrealized loss The problem isn’t wrong direction It’s clearly seeing profit But always thinking it can push further Greed and waiting act together And trap the position in the mud Now is not the time to reflect It’s time to withdraw $ACU surged 26% today A vertical big bullish candle Like a deliberate show of force Chasing in means risking remaining principal To gamble on a script already played out Don’t touch, don’t watch $XAU pulled back at 4452 Death cross just appeared, opportunity exists But weekend market is thin, no gamble Leave gold for next week Today’s task is to survive Speculative coins have been biting this week BICO MUBARAK BEAT Retracements total nearly 200U But ETH and BTC profits of 300U previously earned still cover it No damage to principal Only a big chunk of profit eaten away Feeling blocked mentally, but not panicking yet Stop loss set, ACU blacklisted, laptop closed Today’s biggest move Is to stop trading

#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% 99% is AI, 1% is rockets, my short position is in between $SPCX has reached 146, up 35% from 108. My short position is floating a loss of 300U, -1925%, still holding. Elon Musk spoke. At the all-hands meeting, he said AI revenue is expected to surpass all other businesses combined by September. By the end of next year, 10 gigawatts of computing power, which according to his estimates corresponds to 300 billion to 500 billion in annual revenue. In five years, AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's value. 99% is AI, 1% is rockets. What does 500 billion in annual revenue mean? Nvidia's revenue last year was 60 billion. An AI business that hasn't even commercialized yet aims to reach 500 billion in five years. This is not growth, it's a species change. But the market believes it. From 108 to 149, a 40% increase, all fed by Musk's words. Over a month ago, SPCX at 228 was about rockets and Starlink; now at 146, SPCX is about AI and 500 billion. The same ticker, a different story, and the price comes back. Changing the story doesn't need financial reports, one meeting is enough. I won't judge whether this assessment is right or wrong. But I am sure of one thing—the story can pump the price, but it can also crash it. The story doesn't need to be realized, the market just needs to believe it. But prices supported by stories need numbers to verify. My short position is still there, not because I don't believe in AI, but because I don't believe 500 billion will come out of one all-hands meeting. I'm waiting for financial reports, waiting for orders, waiting for numbers to speak. He said 99% is AI, I'm still waiting in that 1%. Stories can pump prices, but they can't be eaten as food.

When I opened the short position on $SPCX, the idea was simple: at 116.94, with 75x leverage, I thought it would drop. But it kept pushing up, from 116 to 139, then from 139 to 147, with almost no decent pullbacks in between. Today it peaked at 149.47, current price 146.92, floating loss over 300 U, still holding. On the same token, I also ran a grid strategy, going long 10x, in the 100-250 range, average price 134.31, placed 80 orders, total investment 18 U. The grid earned 7.8 U, the short lost over 300 U. Having both long and short orders on the same token feels like hedging, but also like battling myself. $OKB rose 8% today, from 94 to 105, breaking out with volume, mainstream coins are moving steadily, no positions. $TRUST surged 14%, from 0.05 to 0.063, with only 3.92 million U in volume, a small cap drawing lines, chasing in is just taking the bag. The losing positions are still held, and I haven’t touched any of the rising coins. $SPCX rose from 116 to 146, a 30-point increase, the direction was clear long ago, I just didn’t follow it. The position is still open, not closed. Waiting for a pullback opportunity to cut losses and exit. The direction no longer matters; what matters is how this trade ends.

#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ CPI met expectations, and the market chose the most boring outcome The data is out. Overall CPI annual rate is 3.4%, core CPI annual rate is 2.5%, month-on-month 0.1%. Not too high, not too low, neither cold nor hot, right in the middle of expectations. The market waited a week, only to get a "nothing changed" number. $XAU didn’t break above 4417, $BTC didn’t crash below 63800. Both bulls and bears were holding their breath waiting for CPI to give direction, but the data came out and both sides were left empty-handed. What does a CPI that meets expectations mean? It means the September rate hike expectations won’t heat up significantly, nor cool down significantly. CME data shows the probability of keeping rates unchanged is about 52%, and the probability of a 25 basis point hike is about 48%—a near 50-50 split, same as before the data. The day nonfarm payrolls turned negative, half the table was flipped; CPI didn’t flip the other half, nor did it set the table straight. The market continues sideways, waiting for the next data. Bitcoin is still oscillating between 63500-65000. Gold is grinding around 4400. ETH is hovering near 1900. Direction? No direction. The only change is: the sideways period will be extended. CPI didn’t provide direction, so the market can only keep waiting—waiting for PPI, waiting for retail sales, waiting for the next Fed statement. Positions remain. No movement. After waiting a month for data, the market chose the most boring answer. So, keep waiting.

$SPCX short position is still open, entered at 116.94 with 75x leverage, 18.7U principal. After opening, it was dragged up to 139, now it has fallen back to between 134-135 and is moving sideways. The amplitude is less than 5 dollars up and down, grinding for almost a week. This is a pre-market trading stock, liquidity is thin, heavy signs of manipulation by the market maker, any news can cause sudden moves. At 8:30 PM tonight, the US July CPI data will be released. The expected overall CPI year-on-year is 3.4%, core CPI year-on-year is 2.5%. $SPCX has been sideways for four days, waiting for this moment. No one dares to move before the data comes out; after it comes out, it will either follow the market up or down. $KAITO dropped sharply today, from 0.65 down to 0.49, a 24% decline, and OI is also falling. Some are selling, some are buying, chips are changing hands, direction is not yet decided. $APR is even more intense, straight up from 0.19 to 0.38, an 85% increase. With this kind of surge, some people are making crazy profits, while others are chasing at the top. One is sideways waiting for data, one is dropping, one is surging. Three different moves side by side, each with its own script. I'm just waiting for $SPCX to show direction, not touching the other two. Stop loss is set at 125, will exit if it reaches there. Will wait for the CPI data to decide. Tonight will either be a relief or continue to hold.

#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ On the eve of the CPI release, gold and BTC have diverged $XAU is at 4400. $BTC at 63800. One has risen for a month, the other has fallen for four days. Same macro background, two directions. On the night non-farm payrolls turned negative, gold surged from 4216 to 4370, and BTC from 64111 to 65333, moving in sync. Both were betting on a rate cut. Then they started to diverge. Gold kept pushing up, 4400, 4448, with no turning back. BTC slid from 65000 down to 63800, a 1500-point drop, as if someone was slowly draining it. Why? Gold’s logic is simple—weak non-farm payrolls mean rate cut expectations remain, the dollar weakens, gold rises. No other reason needed. One data point is enough. BTC is different. At the 65000 level, it was under pressure from two forces simultaneously. $ETH was buying, whales were selling. The funds on both sides balanced out, and the price stayed flat for a few days. Then it started to fall. It’s not that buying was insufficient, but that selling was too large. Last week, ETF net inflows were 865 million, but 900 million was sold on-chain. As much bought as sold, a futile effort. Gold doesn’t have 900 million in on-chain selling pressure, no whales unloading, no miners transferring. Gold’s supply won’t suddenly increase by 900 million in sell orders. BTC will. Abraxas Capital’s wallet is also active. In the past three days, it moved 25,400 XAUT, worth 110 million USD. Funds are moving into gold, withdrawing from BTC. Tonight’s CPI will decide who laughs last. If the data is weak, rate cut expectations will be confirmed, and BTC might be pulled back to reunite with gold. If the data is strong, rate hike expectations bounce back, gold might be suppressed, and BTC could continue downward. Gold and BTC have temporarily diverged. Tonight’s CPI will decide whether they come back together or drift further apart.

$MUBARAK has been held for two days. Opened the position on the 10th, with a 173U margin, 30,000 coins, 3x leverage. Entry price was 0.0205, expecting a surge. But it just hovered around 0.017, not moving at all. Floating loss of 94U, -46%, cutting it hurts, holding it is uncomfortable. $BEAT was even worse. After confirming the order, the price dropped immediately. I stared at the screen, thinking it was just a normal pullback. Then it kept dropping, kept dropping. When it fell to 0.8579, I clicked to close the position. Lost 47U, from opening to closing in less than two hours. $UB also ended the battle in an hour, 28U evaporated. Together, the three trades lost 170U. BEAT and UB were short-term trades, losing one after another. MUBARAK was a heavy position, held for two days and still declining slowly. BICO blew me up, MUBARAK buried me, BEAT added another stab. The same pit, the fourth time. MUBARAK’s stop loss is set at 0.016, will exit if it hits. If not, just hold it, after all, it’s already been held for two days, one more day won’t matter. Waiting for it to choose its own direction.