My judgment on OKB and the head of X Layer, how valuable it is. Ahahahahahahahahaha (Even the little retail investors are making progress) $OKB #X Layer

As early as July 12, I shared about CRCL. On July 30, when the market was focused on FUD around CRCL, I reminded again and shared my own perspective: to view industry development, one needs to extend the time horizon. When investing in a company, one should choose a company they truly understand. At that time, CRCL was around $62–$64. Now it has risen back above $70, which, calculated based on that price range, is an increase of about 11%–15%. Of course, the rise does not mean my judgment has been fully validated, nor does it mean it will only go up and not down next. For me, the most important significance of this rise is not to prove that I was right again, but to remind myself once more: when the market is full of FUD, what really needs to be judged is not how bad the sentiment is, but whether the company's long-term logic has changed. Understanding it is what makes it possible to hold on; if you don’t understand, no matter how cheap it is, it might just be gambling. I’m also happy for those who were willing to think independently and wait patiently at that time. $CRCL $XCRCL ———————— Sharing is for progress, communication is for correcting cognition. Looking forward to different viewpoints.

【Market Discussion】 BTC rose for 9 consecutive days from 8.1 to 8.9 From August 3 to August 7, BTC ETF inflows reached $865 million. If you say BTC is not strong, it still rose for 9 consecutive days. If you say BTC is strong, even with $860 million ETF inflows, BTC only rose by three to five percent. On August 10, after ETF inflows turned into net outflows of $144.6 million, BTC's daily chart dropped about 1.43%. What is BTC trying to do? $BTC ———————— Sharing is for progress, communication is for correcting understanding. Looking forward to different viewpoints.

My reminder is really timely $OKB

"Zakk Signals Again: Will OKB Surge in Mid-August?" Today, I won’t write a long analysis, just record a positive signal I just saw. Last time, I saw Zakk leave a comment saying he was going to give X Layer a “gift.” The next day, OKX announced the launch of Exchange OS, and OKB then rose about 20%. This time, the signal he gave is even clearer (starting mid-August, a series of initiatives to promote the X Layer ecosystem will be rolled out one by one: TVL, RWA, DeFi, MEME.) In my view, this at least indicates that X Layer is not just stuck in long-term planning but is about to enter a phase of continuous implementation. Of course, how much these initiatives will ultimately be realized, whether they can truly bring capital, users, and on-chain activity, and how much value capture they can generate for OKB still needs to be observed. But for me, who has been closely following X Layer and OKB, this is undoubtedly a positive signal. I’m not trying to persuade you to buy. Rather, for those of us paying attention to OKB, since the direction and timing have been given, let’s patiently wait and see how these cards will be played out one by one. $OKB

"OKB staking yield is only 2.6%, aren't you afraid of eroding supporters' confidence?" 1. ElizaOS founder: ai16z token is "completely dead," and the related foundation is gradually winding down operations. My understanding: ai16z was a star project in the last round of AI Agent, a leading ecosystem player in the industry. Yet in the end, the supported project still went to zero, and the ones hurt in the end are us small retail investors. So I often say, old ways of thinking don't apply now. Whether it's Trump media or ai16z, it doesn't mean they are much smarter than us, nor does it mean they will backstop small retail investors. We should demystify them. In the next round, I only want to focus on two types of projects: 1. Projects that can continuously generate cash flow and stable income; 2. Projects with ETFs or clear institutional funding support; If a project only has a story and institutional endorsement, at most participate short-term, never hold to death. Slow down, believe less in stories, and don't blindly trust institutions. 2. OKX Flash Earn Lite launches RE "Stake to Earn," with OKB staking yield only 2.6%, staking 200 tokens yields 0.85 tokens; My question: What is the platform doing???? Such a low yield is just annoying, right? In fact, holders can fully accept that some periods or even consecutive periods have no OKB staking pool. The platform can reduce the frequency of OKB staking participation, concentrate originally scattered rewards, have longer intervals, but higher yields each time. If the yield is this low, it's better not to have it at all. But the platform often launches such activities that affect holders' expectations and emotions. One low yield might be okay, but repeated occurrences consume not just one yield but holders' expectations for future benefits. OKB has not yet formed a strong enough value capture that the market can clearly perceive; much of its value still lies in future expectations and has not been fully realized. I believe there will be a good reaction once realized, but before that, it is a platform token linked to the platform. When the platform has good news, it rises a bit; when the platform disappoints, holders' expectations are affected. Precisely because the real value capture has not been fully realized, shouldn't the platform maintain supporters' confidence more? Ultimately, 2.6% yield may not be much, but the signal it sends is very bad. It's really annoying. That's the complaint; now for suggestions. Suggestion: Reduce staking frequency and create exclusive staking activities for OKB holders. One, it doesn't affect your exposure agreements with project parties; two, it strengthens the feeling that OKB enjoys scarce rights. According to staking rules, the more OKB staked, the lower the yield. You can limit OKB holders by staking amount based on holding time, enjoying different yield ratios. This way, OKB's scarcity, long-term holding motivation, stronger promotion by holders, and negative sentiment from low yields will all improve comprehensively, while the platform doesn't pay much extra. I understand OKX is currently pursuing compliance and that Flash Earn activities need to balance project exposure and user participation. But compliance, user acquisition, and maintaining OKX supporters' confidence are not conflicting, right? $OKB ————————— Sharing is for progress, communication is for correcting cognition. Looking forward to different viewpoints.

"Trump Media Also Became a Big Retail Investor Once" 1. MicroStrategy sold another 1,638 BTC, with the proceeds used to pay interest and repurchase STRC. My understanding: Given that MicroStrategy is not short on cash, the only reason I can think of for selling BTC is that he currently wants to protect his financing channels. This sale accounts for only 0.19% of his holdings, using this 0.19% to offset about 13.5% of the current annual cash cost. He is repairing the machine that allows him to continue financing to buy more BTC at an extremely low cost. It does not mean he is bearish on BTC. There are many twists and turns in the capital structure involved, which I won’t elaborate on one by one. As small retail investors, we only need to know that he is not bearish on BTC. Also, his monthly sales have very limited impact on BTC’s price. Assuming his large sales cause a huge negative impact, it might actually create opportunities for us to pick up cheap chips. In any case, it’s a good thing, so no need to worry too much. 2. Trump Media bought 11,542 BTC at an average price of $118,522, spending about $1.37 billion. They have started transferring BTC to their partner platform Crypto. If sold, the average selling price would be only $74,855. They just apparently sold 2,628 BTC, about $165 million. The book loss totals $555 million. My understanding: Trump Media transferred BTC to Crypto. First, this is their partner, so we don’t know if they are actually selling. But whether they are selling or not, they have become big retail investors this time. These institutions are just richer than us, which doesn’t mean every operation they do is smarter than ours. When facing so-called “institutional buying,” we still need to demystify it. 3. If the "CLARITY" Act fails, it may trigger a new round of decline in the crypto market. My understanding: The probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year was already low, which I have detailed in previous shares. This reintroduction is close to the timeline; as long as there is no progress before August 7, it will be bearish for BTC in the short term. The probability of Polymarket signing within the year has further dropped to about 27%. So if there is no progress by August 7, we have to wait until the session resumes on September 14. The key decision time windows are as follows: no progress by August 7 means postponement to September 14 to October 2. If no progress by October 2, it will be postponed to December 18. The absolute deadline under U.S. law is December 18. Off-topic: I suddenly realized this timing overlaps somewhat with the previous BTC bottoming and rebound period. In early August 2022, BTC was around $22,000 to $23,000, then pulled back to about $20,000 and consolidated for two months. In November, it fell again to around $16,000, consolidated until the end of the year, and only started rising in January 2023. This timing overlap is indeed interesting but can only be used for observation, not to infer BTC’s trend this year. ————————— Sharing is for progress, communication is for correcting cognition. Looking forward to different viewpoints.