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Trump's recent frequent "shoulder-to-shoulder" interactions with Saudi Arabia are fundamentally about building a new Middle East order led by the United States. This is beneficial for the US and Iran in the short term but will plunge the Arab region into greater chaos in the medium to long term! 1. Previously, the US promised to provide Saudi Arabia with civilian nuclear technology and required Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords, forming a new regional alliance led by the US, which also eased tensions between Israel and Saudi Arabia. 2. In this week's US-Iran military conflict, although Saudi Arabia did not deeply cooperate, there was coordinated combat between the US and Saudi forces on the Iraq battlefield, jointly attacking Iranian-backed Iraqi armed forces. This is a sensitive signal; although Saudi Arabia did not directly attack Iran, the strategic coordination with the US in the region is becoming increasingly apparent. 3. Previously, Trump tried to get Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords, but Saudi Arabia did not respond directly, mainly due to multiple factors, the most important being the issue of Palestinian statehood and Gaza, where Saudi Arabia has deep conflicts with Israel. 4. According to the latest news, Trump announced the complete disarmament of Hamas, the Israeli army's withdrawal from Gaza, and the Palestinian new government taking over Gaza. This move aims to suppress Israel, ease Israel-Saudi tensions, and promote Saudi Arabia's joining the regional alliance, thereby forming a new Arab regional strategic alliance. 5. Once Saudi Arabia joins the alliance, it will be unfavorable to Iran and other resistance groups, and the alliance will limit the development of anti-American coalitions. 6. However, in the short term, the US's attempt to suppress Iran by supporting new allies is good for the current US-Iran situation, indicating Trump’s reluctance to engage in direct or all-in conflict with Iran. But in the medium to long term, given the complex religious, interest, military, and diplomatic relations in the Arab region, Saudi Arabia’s siding will mean even greater chaos in the region. 7. Next, two clues need to be watched: a. Whether Hamas disarms and withdraws, whether Israel withdraws troops, and whether Saudi Arabia considers joining the Abraham Accords; b. Whether military conflicts between the US and Iran continue, whether military actions persist in the Strait, and when bilateral negotiations will resume. 8. Currently, the short-term rebound in international energy prices has slowed, but overall it has not exited the danger zone. Continued attention is needed on whether the subsequent dual-track dynamics can promote easing of tensions. #美伊报复循环加速，油价月内累涨20%